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New O spikes will exceed pandemic records for cases in many places throughout the world Graphs by @jburnmurdoch Link above and ft.com/content/9c29df…
Over the past year, have often referred to this nice analysis by @eguia_rachel @jbloom_lab et al when considering possible COVID futures: journals.plos.org/plospathogens/…
Our paper (and also my very first one 🎉) titled "Comparing human and model-based forecasts of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland" is now available on medRxiv (not yet peer reviewed). medrxiv.org/content/10.110… Below a quick summary: 1/
A sketch to explain how a new variant may appear milder even with no change in underlying virulence. This can occur because, when calculating the fraction of cases that are severe, the denominator now includes many re-infections that had previously been averted. A thread. 1/8
The B.1.1.529 SARS-CoV-2 variant was first reported on 24th November 2021, and 2 days later @WHO designated it #Omicron. Since then we (me @_nickdavies @cap1024 @markjit and John Edmunds) have worked to understand potential consequences for England. 🧵 [cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19…]
![BarnardResearch's tweet image. The B.1.1.529 SARS-CoV-2 variant was first reported on 24th November 2021, and 2 days later @WHO designated it #Omicron. Since then we (me @_nickdavies @cap1024 @markjit and John Edmunds) have worked to understand potential consequences for England. 🧵 [cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19…]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGUeznIWUAEQURN.png)
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