Commentary PlanB
@Commentaryplanb
All models are wrong, some are useful. DYOR. http://planbtc.com
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Happy 2026!! Bitcoin closed 2025 at $87,496 Down -6% from $93,381 end 2024.
IMO bitcoin is extremely undervalued. Bitcoin is scarcer than gold and real estate, but valued 10x to 100x lower. Interesting times ahead.
Bitcoin ($87,500) is currently (pink dot) way off its historic correlation with stocks ($6900) and gold ($4500). This happened before, when BTC was below $1k, and resulted in a 10x pump. But correlation could also be broken, and then this time will be different. Time will tell..
What comes first?
24016 vote · Final results
Why is bitcoin not pumping? Because 50% is selling (OGs traumatized by 2021, technical investors looking at RSI, 4y cycle fans expecting a bear 2y post halving) while the other 50% is buying (fundamental investors, tradfi, banks). Epic battle ... until sellers are out of ammo.
Bitcoin 200 week moving average $57k, rising and diverging from geometric mean ...
💥My monthly view on the bitcoin market in this video: youtube.com/watch?v=EGDRHg…
youtube.com
YouTube
PlanB Bitcoin Analysis December 2025
Bitcoin monthly RSI at 55 ... My analysis in this video 👉 m.youtube.com/watch?v=EGDRHg…
Bitcoin November close: $90,382 ... mixed signals
My view has not changed since 2019. In 2019 btc market cap was $100B ($5k btc). This chart said btc mcap would grow to $1T ($50k btc) in 2020-2024 halving period (blue arrow). It did. The same chart shows $10T mcap / $500k btc for 2028 (red arrow). That is still my view.
Now that you are all freaking out about some 50 week moving average .. .. this Oct 2019 tweet (when BTC was $8k, and most people were freaking out about miner capitulation after 2020 halving, and I was predicting $55k) feels relevant.
A stock-to-flow 100 asset, being worth less than gold ... is like a planet 100 astro units from the sun, rotating faster around the sun than Pluto
I see stories about "old whales dumping bitcoin", but the data does not support those stories. Almost 7 million BTC transacted onchain in 2025. Most BTC came from 2024 transactions. One big 84k BTC 2011 whale. And some 2017-2023 sellers. But that's it, business as usual.
Bitcoin back at $100k .. arithmetic and geometric mean still diverging My analysis here 👉 m.youtube.com/watch?v=3EjScn…
2 years of bouncing between RSI 60-75 .. interesting My analysis here 👉 m.youtube.com/watch?v=3EjScn…
Bitcoin Bull or Bear ahead? youtube.com/watch?v=3EjScn…
youtube.com
YouTube
PlanB Bitcoin Analysis November 2025
Bitcoin October closing price: $109,554 Monthly analysis video will be on YouTube in a few hours
Bitcoin whitepaper is included in block 230009 on the blockchain. If you run a BTC node then you can retrieve the pdf yourself: 1) run node: bitcoind 2) run client with this command: bitcoin-cli getrawtransaction 54e48e5f5c656b26c3bca14a8c95aa583d07ebe84dde3b7dd4a78f4e4186e713 0…
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