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Case in point The strongest narratives last around 3 months, but most do last a few weeks or even less. A very strong coin will get back up after 1 month or relief, for example $SOL underperformed BTC in Jan-Feb and then pumped in March
It reminds me of the last cycle's top in some capacity. It should go for an ATH run, doesn't. Stall a lot, people stay long, doesn't go up. Good news, doesn't pump. Dumps, time line gets rekt on leverage. Time line thinks they'll make it back on the next pump... Oh no no no
When a coin reaches close to $20bn FDV, the r/r of your long dramatically decreases Look at the local top FDV of a few s-tier coins : $STRK : $26bn $ARB : $24bn $APT : $22bn $TIA : $21bn $SUI : $21bn $OP : $21bn Even the tops of $APE and $GMT back in 2022 were $26bn and $24bn
Spaghetti chart of the day is pointing to strength in AI coins (and $UNI) Nvidia conference in 2 weeks catalyst
While the minnows were selling their coins Larger players entered aggressively at market on this up move Very interesting insights to be gleaned when you stat to aggregate delta by order lot #BTC
if we are in strong bullish trend, the lows set by ~700M in long liquidations typically wont get broken in short term bc its unlikely that you will have that much forced selling again soon w/ out OI building up first - esp if strong spot bid persists
What do you mean by this? do you mean that the wicks from force selling never ending up getting refilled?
When these 3 are constantly at the bottom that's usually not great. There are still a lot of bids on Binance though, maybe those stay. $BTC
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Here's the result of two recent CPI's and the accompanying data. If CPI comes in "cooler" / lower than forecast = short-term pump. If CPI comes in "hot" / higher than forecast = short-term dump. Sometimes the moves have legs, sometimes not. This is more to help you w/ lingo.
When $BTC is actually bullish, you usually get one chance to buy a dip (prob right now from the FUD), and local support levels hold. You don't get major sweeps of liquidity or retests like 31.5K retest etc. Price SHOULD hold around here if bullish (in my strong opinion).
This week, the "MA compressions" which I teach in the Haven and use as a signal for volatility to time continuations/reversals worked even better than usual When these MAs tighten you know it's time. They prevent you from entering too early in the consolidation and get chopped.
There is nothing going on with Bitcoin other than a few people pushing around futures.
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Pretty much gave out a blueprint on shorting these gmo-pumps. The opportunities are there. They don't always pan out, but the general checklist is the same for these.
Coins with OI near FDV with people anticipating an easy mean-reversion short to bank: 1. Sets an area for logical stops 2. Bait shorts 3. Rip through every stop loss 4. Relentless nuke
If this is BTC going to reject and pullback further, this gap is where it should happen. Between 30.4-30.6 Otherwise constructive flow and price action through this region sets up 31k retest again.
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