Fibonacci Investing⚡️
@FibonacciInves1
Macro Investing...done right. Only personal opinions....not selling anything. Not financial advice.
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Hi all! I was away from posting recently but I'm back. Recently launched @title2fa Title2FA.com - connect your wallet to your property in minutes. It's FREE to use. Open to everyone (in the US). Currently in beta. $ETH @ethereum #RWA
The average age of someone getting a mortgage is 59 years old! Let's add a 50 year mortgage. That person will pay that off at 109! That's the median case! We need to solve aging before a 50-year mortgage will ever make sense.
$TLT has outperformed Bitcoin YTD (with and without dividends included). Keeping an eye on that...👀
Wait until WallStreetBets juices the downside with 0DTE puts. We are going to see MUCH lower lows than anyone expects. The casino is going to become a volatility machine.
What is smart money doing? What I'm doing... $TLT
WHY YOU’RE GOING TO LOSE MONEY ON STOCKS THIS DECADE! Legendary investor Howard Marks puts it bluntly: “When you buy the S&P 500 at a 23x P/E, your 10-yr annualized return has always fallen between +2% and –2%, IN EVERY CASE, EVERY CASE.” Today the market sits at a 25x P/E.…
$MSTR is a good macro example of why debt is deflationary. Short-term it was very inflationary and it was flush with liquidity (cash). Then as it dries up and relies on even more debt, it's weighted down. New debt doesn't produce enough growth and everything slows. Like the US.
Stock market sentiment right now: "I'll just wait to hit that high again, then I'll sell"
... And they all live in Florida.
They can't use FCF to buildout. Then how would they buyback their shares? Painting themself into a corner.
2/2 The issue appears to be hyperscalers are now issuing debt to fund the buildout vs. funding it out of FCF prior - $GOOG recently sold $17.5bn in US bonds, $META raised $30bn recently, following a $27bn private sale, & $ORCL tapped the bond mkt for $18bn in Sep. #worthwatching
$MSTR common shareholders basically work for the preferred shareholders at this point.
Today was a de-risk day in almost ALL asset classes. Mainly inverses green but stocks, bonds, dollar, commodities and crypto all down. Today the house is winning.
10Y yields breaking down again... This is the point where things get exciting. $TLT
MOVE Index The regime change is clear. Lower bond volatility will lead to higher bond prices. Inflation narrative is beyond dead. Long $TLT
$MSTR may be at the point where its going to be hard to keep issuing preferred to pay for the interest of the other preferred. He should have stuck to convertible debt. The preferred payments force BTC to keep going up within specific time windows. I'm long preferred for now.
guys $MSTR is completely cooked... lost 50wma and is way down, like 60% from highs... and $BTC is still at $100k. What if this continues to like $100 or lower, and Strategy implodes and becomes a forced seller, and then the whole crypto market nukes? Starting to become a…
"When reserves reach ample levels, gradual bond buying will begin again" Not QE - QE $TLT investinglive.com/centralbank/fe…
The best thing to do is not disturb the system and let rates drop naturally. Everyone will be able to get a sub 5% mortgage soon.
70% of mortgages are below 5%. The best solution to make housing affordable is to make all these mortgages transferable from the seller to the buyer. Sellers will come on the market and buyer will see monthly payments below $2k again.
10Y in no-man's land. Caught between two trendlines. The CR passed doesn't add any meaningful stimulus so the macro trend of disinflation will continue. Tariffs remain the only overhand, imo. Long $TLT
No stimulus checks, PLEASE!
If Gen Z is going to live longer, the 50 year mortgage makes sense. Although, it's very Japan 2.0. They offer a 100 year mortgage.
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