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Two different measures of business inflation expectations have essentially returned to pre-pandemic levels. The Atlanta Fed survey (dark line), which asks businesses how much they expect their own unit costs to change, is back at 2%—right where it was in 2019. The Cleveland
BREAKING: US President Donald Trump is set to reverse tariffs on metals and aluminum, per the FT
Core CPI Unrounded: 0.281%
CPI 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.3% CPI Core 0.3% MoM, Exp. 0.3% CPI 2.4% YoY, Exp. 2.5% CPI Core 2.5% YoY, Exp. 2.5%
CPI 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.3% CPI Core 0.3% MoM, Exp. 0.3% CPI 2.4% YoY, Exp. 2.5% CPI Core 2.5% YoY, Exp. 2.5%
US CPI today, according to our independent price data, is 0.72% Y/Y. The latest US CPI report for December was 2.7%. In 1h, the BLS will release its official US CPI (US headline inflation) for January and the revised weights it will use for 2026. Market predictions for this
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇹🇼 United States signs trade deal with Taiwan, cutting tariffs to 15%. In return, Taiwan will remove "99%" of trade barriers on US and purchase $84 billion worth of American goods.
On a NSA basis, initial claims and continuing claims as a share of covered employment are running at the high end of the pre-pandemic and 2023–25 range. No sign of a meaningful break from the no-hire, no-fire equilibrium that has characterized the labor market in recent years.
Today's reaction depends entirely on the vol response if VIX spikes reflexively on the number, the puts are extremely underpriced today in SPX Would be very surprised if we closed 6950 today- based on the 0DTE positions and what the hedging implications are-GL
Brace For Massive, "1 Million Plus" Negative Jobs Revision Tomorrow As Birth-Death Model Is Finally Fixed zerohedge.com/markets/brace-…
Pay growth slowed more last year for workers in union or government jobs that were slower to adjust up in 2021. The reverse of that initial hockey-stick echo seems to have largely played out now. Private non-union in 2025: Q1: 3.3% Q2: 3.4% Q3: 3.5% Q4: 3.3%
ECI: Private-sector pay growth decelerated ever so slightly last year. Wages and salaries for private sector workers ex-incentive paid occupations was +3.38% in Q4 from a year earlier, unchanged from Q3.
WHITE HOUSE: U.S. AND BANGLADESH HAVE AGREED TO AN AGREEMENT ON RECIPROCAL TRADE -STATEMENT WHITE HOUSE: US WILL REDUCE RECIPROCAL TARIFF RATE TO 19 PERCENT ON ORIGINATING GOODS OF BANGLADESH
ADP Private Payrolls 22K, Exp. 48K, Last 41K Labor market remains a mess
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump officially announces creation of $12 billion US critical mineral reserve.
Just had calls with our partners Jungle Rock Capital will not have a limited registration with the SEC, the firm will be fully regulated This quarter we are onboarding clients for the SMAs, and next quarter will be live trading Great news 🤝
The headline jump in the manufacturing ISM (to 52.6%, the first time above 50 in 12 monts) hints at an upturn but also suggests post-holiday replenishment plus customers wanting to "get ahead of expected price increases due to ongoing tariff issues." The commentary is a hot
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Trump announces Kevin Warsh is his pick to lead the Federal Reserve
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