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My friend Jim Wang, a successful macro trader and former CIO at a multi billion dollar pension fund, is starting a new podcast sharing his macro views and framework. I rarely do endorsements, but this is highly recommended. Have a listen: open.substack.com/pub/totalconve…
As ChatGPT becomes more restrictive, Reddit users have been jailbreaking it with a prompt called DAN (Do Anything Now). They're on version 5.0 now, which includes a token-based system that punishes the model for refusing to answer questions.
Some thoughtful questions for the Fed Chair by a former senior Fed official.
Last time 3m10y was more than 70bps inverted was in late Oct 2000. Fed then cut 50 in Dec. Now it's 80bps inverted and Fed is going to hike 50 in Dec. Wild
Jerome H Powell, Chair of the Board of Governors of the @federalreserve, was re-appointed as Chair of the Global Economy Meeting and the Economic Consultative Committee for a three-year period, starting 1 February 2023 #CentralBanks bis.org/press/p221107.…
When equity investors use 30y charts, they are rightly told that this time is different due to inflation. But when bond investors use the same time frame wrt curve behavior, there's very little pushback. 🤔
Haven't seen this talked about much. Kashkari suggesting that 10y Real Yields might need to get to +200bps. minneapolisfed.org/article/2022/p…
New paper shows past & present CPI inflation are more similar than official data suggests. When correcting for change in how housing inflation is measured, we find a return to target core inflation will require @ same disinflation as achieved under Volcker nber.org/papers/w30116#…
Whoa!
BIDEN ADMINISTRATION IS PLANNING TO CANCEL $10,000 IN STUDENT DEBT PER BORROWER -WASHINGTON POST, CITING SOURCES
Is the Fed prepared to bring down inflation if that requires throwing people out of work? That was the question posed to three current or former Fed officials Friday night at Stanford. What followed was a story about a panic button, a security guard, and a piece of art:
The richest man in the world chose to champion freedom of information, transforming life for many. That man was Andrew Carnegie. The 1,500 cities that he gave libraries (at a cost of $1B today) in the early 1900s had 8-13% higher patenting rates than similar cities without them
Almost half of the International House Price Database sample is showing signs of exuberance in the latest release, levels not seen since the boom prior to the Global Financial Crisis. View the data here: dallasfed.org/institute/hous…
Props to the Fed for releasing a Python version of FRB/US. EViews ain't cheap! federalreserve.gov/econres/us-mod…
04/06/22: Our #WageGrowth Tracker shows median wage growth was 6.0% in March. Read more on the #AtlantaFed website: atlfed.org/3lWpMqq #ATLFedResearch
FED'S DALY: INFLATION IS AS HARMFUL AS NOT HAVING A JOB
🇮🇹🇪🇸🇫🇷 Is the euro area bond market "waking up" to the new macro-financial reality of lower growth, higher inflation, and ECB normalisation? Or is there something else happening? A short 🧵
NEW: I’m not sure people appreciate quite how bad the Covid situation is in Hong Kong, nor what might be around the corner. First, an astonishing chart. After keeping Covid at bay for two years, Omicron has hit HK and New Zealand, but the outcomes could not be more different.
I was JUST talking this morning about the worrying signs of a wage-price spiral being easier. And this afternoon the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker jumped from 5.1% y/y to 5.8%, a record. Whooooops.
Let's discuss Russian economy. Many underestimate its dependency upon technological import. Russia's so deeply integrated into Western technological chains that severing these ties will lead to its collapse. Sanctions are already effective and can be made even more efficient🧵
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