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Imagine telling someone 40 years ago that Japan would go from 40% of the global stock market to 5%. And the US would go from 30% to 64%. Where are we going over the next 40?
Global Equity Markets The weight of the US in the MSCI All Country World Index has roughly doubled in the last 35 years.
One ounce of gold buys 100 barrels of oil. Only happened once in the last 35+ years: 2020 at the bottom.
On April 8 of last year, the S&P 500 was down over 15% on the year, its 4th worst start to a year ever. But after a 37% rally, it ended the year up over 17%, hitting 39 all-time highs along the way. One of the greatest market comebacks in history.
US OIL STOCKS REACT TO VENEZUELA: 1. Chevron, $CVX: +11% 2. Valero, $VLO: +11% 3. ConocoPhillips, $COP: +10% 4. Marathon, $MPC: +10% 5. Exxon Mobil, $XOM: +7% 6. Phillips 66, $PSX: +6% 7. Occidental Petroleum, $OXY: +4% 8. EOG Resources, $EOG: +4% 9. Devon Energy, $DVN: +4% 10.…
"The 60/40 portfolio is dead." - December 2022 2023 Total Return: +18.0% 2024 Total Return: +15.5% 2025 Total Return: +13.6%
All 11 S&P 500 sector ETFs finished higher in 2025, the second straight year without a single sector finishing in the red. Best performing sector: Tech $XLK: +25% Worst performing sector: Staples $XLP: +2%
The S&P 500's Dividend Yield ended the year at 1.15%, its lowest level since 2000. bilello.blog/newsletter
Gold (+64%) was the best performing major asset in 2025 while Bitcoin (-6%) was the worst. Something we haven't seen before in any calendar year (the inverse of 2013). $GLD $BTC bilello.blog/newsletter
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The S&P 500 has outperformed the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index by 34% over the past 3 years, the widest 3-year performance gap in history. The prior record was 32% outperformance from 1997-1999 which was followed by a sharp reversal and 7 years of Equal Weight outperformance.
Shares in Siemens Energy, which fell below €7 in late 2023 amid problems at its wind business, are now trading around €120. Siemens Energy’s order backlog stood at a record €138bn as of September, with the next available delivery slot for one of its large gas turbines in 2029.…
Revived Siemens Energy fends off activist call for wind spin-off ft.trib.al/IAOLzTY
There were 68 global M&A deals valued at over $10 billion this year, surpassing the prior record set in 2015.
2025 Total Returns... Gold $GLD: +64% Developed ex-US $VEA: +35% EM $IEMG: +33% Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: +21% S&P 500 $SPY: +18% Small Caps $IWM: +13% Commodities $DBC: +8% US Bonds $AGG: +7% Cash $BIL: +4% REITs $VNQ: +3% Bitcoin $BTC: -6% Volatility $VXX: -42% youtube.com/channel/UCRoWR…
Value today of $10,000 invested 15 years ago: Nvidia: $4,884,416 Tesla: $2,560,452 Broadcom: $1,227,465 Netflix: $375,299 United Rentals: $358,022 Eli Lilly: $308,539 Cintas: $271,273 AMD: $263,447 Amazon: $257,833 Mastercard: $256,243 Apple: $237,005 O’Reilly: $226,600…
5 out of the 7 stocks in the Magnificent Seven actually underperformed the S&P 500 this year, a very different picture than 2023/2024. Only Google and Nvidia outperformed.
The S&P 500 ends the year up 17.9%, exceeding nearly all expectations for the 3rd straight year (note: including dividends). $SPX bilello.blog/newsletter
The S&P 500 was up 17.4% this year when US markets closed on Monday, undershooting the 29% gain for the MSCI All Country World ex-US index by the widest margin since the global financial crisis in 2009. ft.com/content/10a8a0…
$KKR Co-CEO Scott Nuttall: "The largest 100 U.S. companies in the United States have seen their margins expand materially in the last 5 years, 14% to 19%. The next 1,400 companies have had their margins flat and are working to stay even."
United States Trends
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