Machon Method Trader
@MMethod_Trader
Husband to Machon Method Founder, Dad, Man of God, Former corporate executive turned retail options trader...a blessed man. Tweets are not financial advice.
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I’m gonna give 10 random people that repost this and follow me $25,000 for fun (the $250,000 my X video made) I’ll pick the winners in 72 hours
What I lo💎e about Vivek is he answers questions with pure logic 📌 super smart MOST importantly America 🇺🇸 FIRST 🥇 THE #truth @VivekGRamaswamy
A protestor came to my event in Iowa last night. I gave her the mic. And then something surprising happened.
Market failed at IB high, sold off to below IB low and failed twice thus far to break back above. Abysmal price action. I win’t play unless we can break below $4359 and then reclaim $4366/67. Be careful today.
Prediction for FOMC (hint, it’s nearly always the same): Big initial move on decision, big reverse move when Powell speaks, and perhaps emergence of trend by close. Tomorrow the “real” trend leg emerges. Don’t get trapped and if you’re really smart, don’t trade it.
90 minutes into the day and chop/basing rules the day. CPI tomorrow so we’re likely to get a big move out of this. In the meantime, stay on the correct side of things for the moment…we’re below overnight low, IB low, and opening range.
Opening range breakdown in play…short the pop type of day? Key /ES levels are 4515 and 4500.
Daily Thought: Instead of defining yourself a bull or bear, why not just evaluate the action and align yourself with it?
Character change in indexes this week. SPX 1st daily red candles since May, closed under 50 EMA 1st time since May, and below bullish March trendline. Is this the start of a broader selloff and test of 200 EMA? Or will NVDA spur the next rally? I lean bearish until 4325.
NVDA ER after close today. Official transcript: "Thank you for coming today. AI, AI, AI, AI, AI. Also, AI, AI, AI, AI, and AI. Next quarter guidance is AI, AI, AI, AI. Thank you. AI."
Gotta respect the bulls. World is crumbling around them but you would never know it. Picturing Nemo's mother..."just keep buying, just keep buying."
"The bad economist pursues a small present good that will be followed by a great evil to come, while the good economist pursues a great good to come, at the risk of a small present evil." I'm guessing we're at Option 1 currently.
Ahead of FOMC, market is telling us that big tech is worth more today than it was when fed started hiking, in the midst of a financial crisis and looming debt ceiling. Okey dokey. Will be starting a long-term short campaign before eod...hopefully at /ES 4050.
We live in a fintwit defined by lack of accountability. If someone posts a trade and I take it, understand, it's MY trade. I don't blame the poster if the trade fails. IMO, it's the #1 reason so many fail in trading.
The last time that core inflation was at today's levels and the unemployment rate was at multi-decade lows, the 10-year bond yield was running at 8-9%.
Mega cap Tech in a nutshell: “Investors are simply paying more, for less future earnings.” $NYFANG $AMZN $GOOG $MSFT $AAPL
All megacap tech stocks have now reported. What has happened to their consensus earnings estimates? Let’s look at $AMZN $GOOG $MSFT and $AAPL. All of them seeing EPS estimates down post Q4 results, with no positive impact from the “efficiency focus/cost cutting” initiatives.
Good time to zoom out in #ES_F: Lots of bull vs bear market debate; reality is we are now 10 monthly candles side-by-side & same lvl as May 2022 Rangebound & until June low or Aug high clears, remains so, likely for months. Traders market & costly for those with "perma" biases
Precise technicals in #ES_F: 3945-47 was sell target after PCE. I posted 3945-47 was the spot for 1st relief bounce of the day, and we hit 3947.50 & squeezed 30 points At resistance now. 3985, 4k next up. Now that 3945-47 bounced, must keep holding or leg to 3920 starts direct
Current situation: 1. Stocks down like a 50 bps rate hike is coming 2. $VIX down like the Fed just pivoted 3. Oil prices down like we are in a recession 4. Treasury yields up like inflation is at 10% 5. Gold prices down like we have deflation The Fed broke the stock market.
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