Modeled Chess Stats
@ModeledChess
National Master. Trying to model tournament results.
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Congrats to Akshat Chandra (@QuestToGM) on winning the 2015 @USChess Junior Closed Championship! @CCSCSL #USJuniorClosed
Bh5! Might have been only move for Liou, but it's more than good enough. @CCSCSL
Xiong got a nice advantage today, but then made a few decisions I didn't understand. c3 and Nd4 both seemed strange.
That round was most likely the decider. After round 6, win shares: Caruana 96.12% Nisipeanu 3.88% However! All in Nisipeanu's hands.
Has 16-year-old Wei Yi just played a new Game of the Century?! chess24.com/en/watch/live-… #c24live
Meier pushed too hard, easy draw with 39. Qg6 or 39. Rxc6. Win shares: Kramnik: 52.1% Caruana 25.2% Nisipeanu 17.8% Naiditch 3.7% #c24live
Re1 berlin for those who think a complicated endgame is boring, but an exchange french is exciting! #c24live
Win shares after rd 3 dortmund: Kramnik 34.4% Caruana 20.7% Naiditch 19.5% Nisipeanu 18.8% So 3.7% Nepo 2.0% #c24live
Great result from Yu Yangyi at Capablanca! Three Chinese players 22 and younger over 2700! Only others are Caruana, Giri, and So.
The reason I think it's a mis-model because Topalov will probably play in a style that increases the draw percentage and therefore his win %
Exciting round 8. I'm pretty sure this is a mis-model for a last round game, but win shares: Topalov 78.2% Anand 21.8% #NorwayChess
Some round... We had 2.75 great fights (my own opinion). Win shares: Topalov 90.3% Anand 7.5% Naka 2.1% #NorwayChess
Still too far back right now, but rd 9 features Topalov-Anand. I remember one time when Anand beat Topalov with black in the last round...
Favorable round for Topalov. Assuming Naka holds, which is my bet, shares: Topalov 85.8% Anand 7.6% Nakamura 5.6% Giri 1.0% #NorwayChess
Tough loss by Hammer, but Topalov benefits from some luck again, win shares: Topalov 70.1% Nakamura 13.1% Anand 10.4% Giri 5.2% #NorwayChess
Topalov the favorite, win shares to show: Topalov 48.8% Nakamura 22.5% Anand 13.2% Giri 8.8% Caruana 4.2% ... Carlsen 0.05% #NorwayChess
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