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Breadth-based US Market timing tracker: 31-10-2023
and this is what happened after most bearish reading on April 11'th 2023. It's not true that the markets are a self-deception mechanism? $SPX $SPY $QQQ
"Large speculators, mostly hedge funds, saw their net short positions in S&P 500 e-mini futures increase to roughly 321,000 contracts as of Tuesday, according to data from the CFTC. ‼️ That’s the most bearish reading since November 2011." 🤔 $SPX #ES_F
JUST IN: Interest rate futures now showing rate cuts beginning in July 2024 after retail sales data. Furthermore, additional rate HIKE odds are nearing 50% and being pushed well into 2024. There is even a very small (0.3%) chance of up to 3 more rate hikes. As time goes on,…
JUST IN: A bank run has begun in China at the Bank of Cangzhou on fears that the collapse of Evergrande made them insolvent. Just a couple months ago, China's largest property developer, Evergrande, filed Chapter 15 bankruptcy. This week, Country Garden, another major Chinese…
Macroeconomics Cheat Sheet Here's everything you need to know:
This week's main event, the CPI, was overshadowed by a mid-day government bond issuing gone poorly. The CPI came in a little hotter than expected, but Core was in line at 4.1%. The interesting thing about economics is data manipulation. An old joke is that two economists see a…
Seasonal work - I freakin' love it. This is a perfect analogy. People act like trading is a 9 to 5 job and they have to "put in work" every day. But as you described, trading should be thought more of like "seasonal work". You push and work hard during the peak season, and then…
Very few setups. Markets need more time. It may take months to climbe over MAs. I can sit in cash for as long as it takes. My style is seasonal and work good roughly 2 to 4 times per year. Will most likely take a walk & do sauna instead of trading..listening to Paul Desmond.
I spent 24 years as an Intelligence Professional in the Army. The concept of "indicators" in intelligence can be directly related to the decision-making process in trading. In both domains, indicators serve as evidence or signals that inform the likelihood of a particular…
After 3 days of weak buying, the selling was back. This market has been under selling pressure for 2 months. The selling is drip drip selling. A big breadth thrust can change that.
"Be patient, keep studying, and be 100% prepared. Later, at the least expected time, when all the news is terrible, winter will ultimately pass and a great new bull market will suddenly spring to life." - William J. O'Neil
BREAKING: The S&P 500 is now down 340 points, or 7.5%, since the Fed removed a recession from their forecast. On July 26th, the Fed raised rates and said they were not longer expecting a recession. The Fed marked the EXACT high in the S&P 500 which just hit its lowest levels…
Hedge funds are increasing short exposure to technology and semiconductors stocks. Currently, nearly 40% of all shorts in semiconductor stocks are by hedge funds. This is up sharply from ~33% just a few months ago. Interestingly, these same funds were buying names like $NVDA…
Inflation adjusted home prices are now 85% above their average dating back to 1900. Even after accounting for inflation, home prices have never been more expensive than they are now. In fact, inflation adjusted home prices are now 20% above their 2008 peak, the previous all…
The first sign of a potential bottom will be 1. NLs stops expanding and starts to contract. NHs will stop contracting and will start to expand. Eventually NHs will overtake NLs. 2. At this point the indices will likely be up near their declining 10/20 MA. 3. Breadth will…
The top 5 stocks now reflect 24% of the entire S&P 500's market cap. This is the same exact level seen in 2020 prior to the pandemic related crash. In 2008, the top 5 companies reflected just ~14% of the S&P 500's market cap. In 2000, which is widely considered one of the…
You are a risk manager first. You are a trader only after your obligations as a risk manager have been fulfilled.
4th weakest reading of the year & 2nd longest negative streak of the year (13 in a row).
Both $QQQ and $SPY under lower BB, some important supports holding, but lame ass bounce, thus far. Need that tasty follow through unless you are daytrading for a few points.
When market becomes difficult for your style of trading , there is often tendency to style drift. As a result when market conditions improve you are not ready for it.
The most important thing that traders forget is the overall progress they are making. Stage 1 and Stage 2 traders do not look at equity curves and get lost in the emotional battle they have with the markets. Since May the market has been coooperative, if you are a Stage 1/2…
United States Trends
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