Prediction Markets
@PredictionMkts
A nonprofit that researches and operates prediction markets and other experimental markets.
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![MoneyIllusion's tweet card. [Before starting, let me recommend a new Sebastian Edwards paper discussing the effectiveness of MMT-style policies in Latin America. I have a new post at Econlog.] Last year, I did a post over at...](https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1976307637890207744/gcbVtMW_?format=png&name=orig)
Inching toward NGDP targeting dlvr.it/R3ygkK
themoneyillusion.com
Inching toward NGDP targeting - TheMoneyIllusion
An increasing number of important people recognize that NGDP level targeting is superior to inflation targeting. Nonetheless, the Fed is unlikely to suddenly switch to NGDP targeting. Rather, the...
My book w/ @KevinSimler, Elephant in the Brain, was officially published 18 months ago. Publisher says it has sold 21K copies so far. On Goodreads it has 1810 ratings & 223 reviews. So ~9% of readers have rated it & 1% have reviewed it there. elephantinthebrain.com
What should we make of current market signals? dlvr.it/R3l9YZ
themoneyillusion.com
What should we make of current market signals? - TheMoneyIllusion
For those foolish enough to pay attention to my predictions, here are a few thoughts on the current condition of the economy. First the data: 1. Stocks hitting all-time record levels. 2. The yield...
Tyler Cowen on Fed nominees. dlvr.it/R3dVyq
themoneyillusion.com
Tyler Cowen on Fed nominees. - TheMoneyIllusion
Tyler Cowen has a Bloomberg post that discusses what type of person should be nominated for a position on the Board of Governors at the Fed. It's a good piece and I don't see anything with which to...
My book Elephant in the Brain, coauthored w/ @KevinSimler, is to be translated to Romanian! elephantinthebrain.com
Grad & advanced undergrads, apply to our Public Choice Outreach Conf, where I'll talk on futarchy. Deadline May 1. publicchoice.gmu.edu/center-program…
.@paulfchristiano responds to my critique in a comment at my blog post: overcomingbias.com/2019/04/agency…
In past I've said AI foom worries don't fit w/ econ growth lit. I now say @paulfchristiano AI worries don't fit w/ econ agency lit. He claims smarter AI makes for apocalyptic agency failures/rents; humans "lose any real ability to influence" society. overcomingbias.com/2019/04/agency…
My podcast w Brendan Carr on Elephant in the Brain: youtube.com/watch?v=lA1Fmx…
youtube.com
YouTube
Hidden Motives in Everyday Life | Robin Hanson on Brendan Carr...
My general presumption for more & symmetric info, + concrete benefits on tax & other corruption, pushed me to favor publishing tax records, contrary to @tylercowen. As they do in Scandinavia, Wisconsin, US property taxes, & as US feds did in 1861 & 1924. overcomingbias.com/2019/04/publis…
Qualifications for the Fed dlvr.it/R2VjSQ
themoneyillusion.com
Qualifications for the Fed - TheMoneyIllusion
I have a new post up at The Bridge, which discusses the qualifications we should look for in a nominee for the Board of Governors: There are at least five possible criteria for judging a candidate...
My talk at Princeton last November on Long Legacies & Fights: youtube.com/watch?v=fZX7h9…
Paying for the Green New Deal dlvr.it/R2K7LW
themoneyillusion.com
Paying for the Green New Deal - TheMoneyIllusion
George Selgin was interviewed on the BBC today and did an excellent job of explaining the unrealistic assumptions being made by proponents of the Green New Deal (GND). I encourage readers to listen...
"the book … made a very successful turn in delivering a bunch of new ideas and useful insights soon after. Therefore I can conclude that I very much would recommend this book & enjoyed reading it a lot." riedlanna.com/blog/on-the-el…
"Robin Hanson, by contrast, is a partisan of optimization; he speaks out against bias & unprincipled favoritism and in favor of systems like prediction markets which would force the 'best ideas to win'” Yes AGENTS should optimize. But I'm okay w/ individuals being free to waste.
In past I've said AI foom worries don't fit w/ econ growth lit. I now say @paulfchristiano AI worries don't fit w/ econ agency lit. He claims smarter AI makes for apocalyptic agency failures/rents; humans "lose any real ability to influence" society. overcomingbias.com/2019/04/agency…
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