ProFootballLogic
@ProFBLogic
NFL statistical analysis. Team ratings & game projections modeled on ratings and associated point value of every NFL player.
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Does anyone else find it obnoxious that both ESPN & NFL Network commentators see the draft picks before viewers, and then play a silly game of acting like they're predicting who will be taken when they already know full well who was?
Our account was hacked and turned into a different username spreading crypto scams for the past week before Twitter corrected it. Apologies to anyone who saw or was confused. Now back to normal.
The list of QBs that have been on their team the longest might be the most shallow in decades, and getting worse: GB Rodgers: 18 yrs LV Carr: 9 DAL Prescott: 7 KC Mahomes: 6 SF Garoppolo: 5.5
Team ratings that fit betting lines for this week & Super Bowl champ odds: KC: 4.0 this week for Mahomes inj, 6.5 for SB CIN: 6.5 PHI: 6.0 SF: 6.5
These are the team ratings we get if we scale ours in our playoffs model to match betting odds for Super Bowl champ odds & this week's lines.
Jaguars had the penalty to justify it, but even without it going for 2 when down 4 late is probably always the right choice. Make = turns overtime into a W Miss = turns overtime into a W/L gamble of needing 30 more yards
Annual reminder that most teams should call way more QB runs/options during the playoffs, as the risk/reward ratio is much different from regular season
Every Wild Card game is a rematch: Wk 3: BUF 19 at MIA 21 Wk 15: MIA 29 at BUF 32 Wk 5: CIN 17 at BAL 19 Wk 18: BAL 16 at CIN 27 Wk 3: JAC 38 at LAC 10 Wk 2: SEA 7 at SF 27 Wk 15: SF 21 at SEA 13 Wk 16: NYG 24 at MIN 27 Wk 1: TB 19 at DAL 3
These are the team ratings we get if we scale ours in our playoffs model to match betting odds for Super Bowl champ odds & this week's lines.
Our playoffs model gives a bit under a 50% chance of the BUF-KC neutral site AFC Championship occurring, and each team's odds of making the Super Bowl about 5% different vs if it would be at KC.
Activations of a player off IR (8 allowed): KC - 3 BUF - 1 CIN - 2 JAC - 1 LAC - 3 BAL - 6 MIA - 4 PHI - 7 SF - 8 MIN - 4 TB - 4 DAL - 2 NYG - 6 SEA - 2
A good All-Pro vote would be surveying coaches & players who their toughest personal opponent this year was, based only on the field & film study. (For instance a CB voting for some DT is no better than asking a random fan).
Here is the inaugural Players’ All-Pro Team, via the NFL Players Association:
Quandre Diggs could have easily stayed in bounds if he tried to, instead of pointing at the Rams bench
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