Caleb
@Vulst2
occasional contributor | http://letterboxd.com/Vulst | alt: @Vulst3
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Baseline for the TN-07 (Trump +22) election Dec 2nd is R+8. If Trump job approval trend continues you can expect about 49% of adults in TN-07 to approve of him and 47% to disapprove on election day
When a DINO flips NY-02 next year it'll revert in 2028 so don't worry too much
This is not the tone I expected for this meeting. Won't POTUS' new friendship with @ZohranKMamdani -- and this Oval Office banter -- complicate the GOP strategy of making him Boogyman No 1 during the midterms?
"I would feel very comfortable being in New York, and much more so after the meeting" says Trump.
You get the impression Trump actually thought Mamdani ran a Pro-Crime Campaign right until today
(Had to use RCP for 2010/14) Out party generic ballot lead on October 31st of year prior to midterm: -0.6pts Lead on Oct 31st of midterm year: +4.6pts
I'm announcing my run for Governor of California as a Democrat tomorrow. I hope you'll join me and also declare yourself as a Democratic candidate for Governor of California.
Updating less since there are better aggregates now (votehub, 50+1, etc) but the post-Nov pullaway is happening
Anyone have all generic ballot polls for cycles 2010, 14, 18, and 22 on file? Don't really want to use RCP
#BREAKING: The redistricting map submitted by D.D., a teenage resident of Alabama, to the Special Master has been adopted by the federal court. The map has been ordered for use in Alabama's state Senate elections beginning in 2026. courtlistener.com/docket/6149420…
the Molest Republicans Referendum did 2pts worse than Clinton16. Bit of a north south divide
on the Donald Trump Cost of Living tour and theyve got a banner behind him that says INFLATION IS A RATE AND IT IS SLOWING AND I AM NOT A PEDOPHILE
Cool how Jeffery was like "i kno your worry abou trum ghislain. . me three. Sent from my iPad"
little acronym known as BAR
This is interesting because prediction markets shifted hard for Republicans to keep the House from <20% to >40% If it’s really just a half seat difference, I truly think it should be back at 80%-20%
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