Fearless Extrapolator
@astrapolator
Per aspera ad astra
Tal vez te guste
We now have: 1. Trump saying he will keep stocks at record highs 2. $600B/year in Magnificent 7 CapEx 3. Fed cutting interest rates into 3%+ inflation 4. Global AI infrastructure spending at $1T/year 5. Fed ending Quantitative Tightening in 2 days 6. US deficit spending at >6%…
Alternative data shows US layoffs are surging: Job cuts tracked by MacroEdge jumped +70,609 MoM in October, to 154,559, the highest in at least 2 years. Monthly job cuts have now exceeded 100,000 for the 5th time this year. At the same time, layoff announcements compiled by…
Compounding inflation is a global crisis: Since January 2021, the UK gas experienced the largest surge in prices among major economies, at +28.2%. The US saw cumulative inflation of +23.8%, followed by the Euro Area at +23.1% and Germany at +21.2%. France’s cumulative…
this reinforces what we said earlier this year... - crypto stablecoins are the biggest buyer of gold in the World - and have been the singular driver of higher prices since early 2026 This is not bearish for Bitcoin $BTC but is setting a higher future price for BTC
Tether bought more gold last quarter than every central bank.
Happy Thanksgiving 🧡
BREAKING: The S&P 500 closes the day +0.7% higher, adding +$2.5 trillion of market cap since last week’s low. Happy Thanksgiving to all!
That was the cheapest $BTC has been relative to its 200-day moving average since the FTX low.
There are only 2 networks that matter at an engineering level. Solana and SUI. Solana is and will dominate retail markets. Everything will trade on Solana. SUI will dominate enterprise integration to the digital liquidity and grow to be the liquidity hub Ethereum wanted to…
In other words they will print to win the AI arms race and then they will print to fund the UBI. Only thing you can't print is energy and gold/bitcoin have yet to figure that out
If AI doesn’t work, it will risk recession, blowing out fiscal deficits into insufficient foreign UST demand. If AI works, it will undermine the U.S. fiscal position (~half of US Federal receipts come from employment), blowing out deficits into insufficient foreign UST demand.
This four-day chart—yes, only four days—illustrates just how violently the market has repriced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut on December 10. The implied probability surged from the low 30s to over 90% just an hour ago, and currently sits at 87%. It is a remarkable…
After today's move: - S&P 500: 2% away from all time highs - Fear & Greed Index: 16, "Extreme Fear" Sentiment is perfectly positioned for an end of year "Santa rally."
Last week's market "crash" has been erased: The S&P 500 has now added +250 POINTS since Friday's low, now ABOVE the November 20th high before the "crash." That is +$2.1 TRILLION in market cap in less than 3 trading days. And, this puts the S&P 500 just 2.2% away from entering…
We’ll probably look back on this period as a bear market: that was a full-blown short-term holder bear capitulation, and may still take some time to work through. The red doesn’t flash often. Perhaps we’re in a new, more mature bitcoin market: No blowoff tops, contained…
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 20 - Extreme Fear Current price: $87,898
We have raised $21 billion in YTD 2025. $BTC
Bitcoin treasury companies suffer from a kind of negative convexity: they can lever up and buy when BTC is ripping, but when BTC dumps and they should be buying, their leverage spikes, their market cap shrinks, and demand for their debt disappears. Structurally, they end up…
Morgan Stanley on "AI Bubble" Fears: “Any weakness in the short-term is an opportunity to add long exposure into 2026." Morgan Stanley is now calling for a +1,000 POINT rally in the S&P 500 over the next 12 months, to 7,800. Use the volatility to your advantage.
There’s a Bitcoin feature almost everyone gets wrong. Most people - including long-time Bitcoiners - still think of Bitcoin as if it works like a bank account. You open your wallet, you see a number, and you assume that’s your balance. Familiar. Simple. But completely wrong.…
The "Gemini Effect" is amplifying Alphabet/Google’s outperformance: This chart from CNBC’s Mike Santoli illustrates just how significantly Google/Alphabet (at another record high today) has outperformed the rest of the "Magnificent 7" tech cohort. This outperformance is being…
$IBIT short interest has plummeted. It wasn't exactly high to begin with at 2% of shares, but it's almost back to where it was in April bf rally. Traders tend to short into strength and cover in downturns, according to S3 Partners, who added in all ETFs for context..
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