Mid-year update We review the performance of the Bianco Research Total Return Index and the ETF that tracks it, the WisdomTree Bianco Fund (WTBN). Also, the fair value of bonds and why Trump's demand that the Fed cut rates can lead to higher LT yields. biancoadvisors.com/2025-mid-year-…
1/2 The Atlanta Fed GDPnow was updated today. Unchanged at 3.8%. The only update was based on the New Orders from the non-manufacturing (or services) ISM report. The rest of the update did not happen because it was government data. They also noted that this series will not be…
2/2 The orange line represents the median Q3 2025 GDP forecast, compiled from a survey of 61 economists conducted by Bloomberg. Currently, it is at 2.06%. The orange area is the highest to the lowest forecast. The blue line represents the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow see above). It is…
The AI Business Model? *NVIDIA IS AMONG EQUITY INVESTORS IN MUSK'S XAI CHIP DEAL *MUSK’S XAI NEARS $20 BILLION CAPITAL RAISE TIED TO NVIDIA CHIPS
The AI boom/bubble now has the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) with the same eight largest stocks (table). These two indices are merging into the same thing.
The AI boom/bubble now has the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) with the same eight largest stocks (table). These two indices are merging into the same thing.
1/4 JP Morgan has identified 41 "AI-Related" stocks. As this chart shows, they are now 45% of the S&P 500.
In the last week, some heavy hitters have warned about an AI bubble. Jeff Bezos = Amazon David Solomon = Goldman Sachs Roger McNamee = Elevation Partners And below is Sam Altman, Founder of OpenAI (ChatGPT) From the article … —— Of course, when Altman makes these prophecies…
Sam Altman Warns That AI Industry Is Due for a Spectacular Implosion | @scoopit futurism.com/artificial-int…
Back in August I suggested that cutting mortgage rates was not going to lessen the housing affordability problem. Cutting mortgages was only going to push housing prices higher. Detailed here. The repost below higher prices are now happening. x.com/biancoresearch…
Either an outlier or a leading indicator that lower mortgage rates are arresting the recent softness in home prices: ICE Mortgage Monitor: "In Sept., 80% of markets saw price increases — the highest share in nine months — while only 20% declined, down from 55% two months ago."
1/4 JP Morgan has identified 41 "AI-Related" stocks. As this chart shows, they are now 45% of the S&P 500.
3/4 ChatGPT was released on November 29, 2022. Since this date, these 41 stocks have accounted for 70% of the increase in the S&P 500's value (blue). The other 30% came from the remaining 359 stocks (orange)
4/4 All passive index owners have significant exposure to AI. If not, it's because they actively sought out non-AI stocks (orange above), a lagging universe. Is that "something wild" (below) the popping of the AI bubble? It's enough to bring down the indices.
The retweet below triggered me, so here is a long rant about the institutional problems at the Fed and New York Fed President John Williams. --- Congress amended the Federal Reserve Act in November 1977, adding the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. The point…
New York Fed President John Williams calls out what he sees as a false dichotomy in monetary policy discourse by dismissing efforts to cast the use of QE or forward guidance as "unconventional": "This narrow understanding of monetary policy is alien to the history of monetary…
This means that Trump will need Miran's Governor spot that expires in January to appoint the next Fed Chairman (unless it's Waller or Miran, who are already Governors) to replace Powell when his term ends in May.
NEW: The Supreme Court will allow Lisa Cook to remain in her job as a Fed governor for now. The Trump administration's application for a stay has been "deferred pending oral argument in January 2026."
It makes sense that the Supreme Court would not let Trump fire Cook now. What if they did? Trump appoints someone to fill her seat, and that person is confirmed by the Senate as Fed Chairman, then she wins her case. How do they undo that? There are only seven governor seats,…
Bettors are not looking for a last-minute deal to avoid a shutdown.
Update and please note the scale. Eric Adams' dropping out of the mayoral race has reduced Mamdani's probability of winning from 87% to 85%. Meaning, the bettors think it made no difference.
*ERIC ADAMS DROPPING OUT OF NYC MAYORAL RACE: SPOKESMAN
United States 트렌드
- 1. #2025MAMAVOTE 1.29M posts
- 2. Fetterman 63.5K posts
- 3. #KonamiWorldSeriesSweepstakes N/A
- 4. Tyla 14.7K posts
- 5. No Kings 149K posts
- 6. Deport Harry Sisson 23.5K posts
- 7. #thursdayvibes 3,449 posts
- 8. #ThursdayThoughts 2,452 posts
- 9. Somalia 30.2K posts
- 10. Mila 18.4K posts
- 11. Andrade 6,230 posts
- 12. Ninja Gaiden 23.7K posts
- 13. Jennifer Welch 7,524 posts
- 14. #SpiritDay 1,057 posts
- 15. Turkey Leg Hut N/A
- 16. Dead or Alive 21.5K posts
- 17. Starting 5 7,490 posts
- 18. Deloitte 14.7K posts
- 19. Tomonobu Itagaki 17.5K posts
- 20. Dave Dombrowski N/A
Something went wrong.
Something went wrong.