The 6-mo trend in the core deflator is now below target at +1.9% SAAR; last there in Sept 2020. It was ‘transitory’ after all! A round trip! As “Dandy Don” would said on Monday Night Football back in the 70s, “turn out the lights, the party’s over…”.
As the stock market rips in this Santa rally, nobody seems to have noticed that since the end of September, Q4 EPS estimates have been trimmed more than -5% and 2024 by -1%. Then again, who needs fundamentals when you have seasonals, momentum and a dovish Fed as tailwinds?
This 'broadening out’ in the market has been nothing more than a massive short squeeze in financials, health care and consumer discretionary. The most heavily shorted stocks have popped 40% in just the past two months!
“Markets tend to return to the mean over time.” Simple rule, but elegant. Read today's memo on why I believe the bond yield peak is in -- assuming Bob Farrell's #1 Market Rule on Mean Reversion is prescient. memofromthechiefeconomist.com/p/the-bond-yie…
memofromthechiefeconomist.com
The Bond Yield Peak Is In
Assuming Bob Farrell's Rule #1 on Mean Reversion is prescient
The closest my daughter gets to watching a Jets game with me!!!!! @nyjets @NFL @NFLonPrime #jets @Browns
It’s US publication day! (UK was September 28.) Am very grateful for the opportunity to work with my co-authors — Gordon Brown, Michael Spence and Reid Lidow. Big thanks to all the wonderful colleagues that helped us publish the book. Yes, our current economic circumstances are…
Trump disqualified from Maine 2024 Republican primary ballot foxnews.com/politics/trump…
I will be speaking at the SAVE AMERICA RALLY tomorrow on the Ellipse at 11AM Eastern. Arrive early — doors open at 7AM Eastern. BIG CROWDS!
RETWEET if you have President Trump’s back and are voting for him on November 5th, 2024.
I will be there. Historic day!
BE A PART OF HISTORY! January 6th - arrive by 9AM White House Ellipse RSVP @ TrumpMarch.com #MarchForTrump #StopTheSteal #DoNotCertify
How can you certify an election when the numbers being certified are verifiably WRONG. You will see the real numbers tonight during my speech, but especially on JANUARY 6th. @SenTomCotton Republicans have pluses & minuses, but one thing is sure, THEY NEVER FORGET!
“We’ve seen in the last few months, unprecedented amounts of Voter Fraud.” @SenTedCruz True!
“We are not acting to thwart the Democratic process, we are acting to protect it.” @SenRonJohnson
The “Surrender Caucus” within the Republican Party will go down in infamy as weak and ineffective “guardians” of our Nation, who were willing to accept the certification of fraudulent presidential numbers!
Heading to Georgia now. See you soon!
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