David Li
@davidycli
just a guy trying to make drugs that help patients
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In biotech, China now ahead in ADCs, bispecific Ab’s, T cell engagers, and traditional small mlc’s US still slightly ahead on cell and gene therapy, gene editing, and more exotic small molecules (glues, covalents, degraders, etc) China clinical dev timelines 50-100% faster…
US is firmly, unambiguously losing to China in every area of robotics, every area of transportation other than airliners, every area of energy generation and storage, and every area of infrastructure and construction In 2025 we will lose our lead on AI, semiconductors, and more
The implications of this thread for biotech drug dev are enormous. Currently US market generates ~75% of the profit of global biopharma sector. If 1.3bn+ Chinese are truly consuming at same levels of Americans by ~2040, we are about 15 years away from: - China joining US…
Well, Americans (and the Japanese and Western Europeans) are still richer on average than the Chinese. But the gap is relatively mild if you compare Chinese living standards to those of very poor countries in Africa and Asia. For example, Chinese life expectancy is 1.3 years…
this thread on using ChatGPT to solve an open problem in convex optimization feels like what AI models will act like when they eventually help accelerate science to a "novel" breakthrough - Key part is that human still needs to provide i) pruning feedback ii) prompting on which…
I used ChatGPT to solve an open problem in convex optimization. *Part I* (1/N)
lynbrook, mission sj, lowell --> silicon valley pipeline is west coast equiv of stuy, bronx science, bergen county --> wall st pipeline same status games, different coast
as someone who went to both, can confirm 🤠 lynbrook was a public high school where being smart was cool and there was no substitute to working hard. the students were extremely disciplined and took nothing for granted it's probably not a coincidence that the founders of…
Silicon Valley “gangster story” lore: Steve Jobs spends $50M over 10 years to buy and personally fund Pixar, creating an iconic animation company that sold to Disney for $7b Biotech version: Bob Duggan spends $50M out of pocket to buy and fund Pharmacyclics over 8 years,…
Replit CEO Amjad Masad on the “most gangster story in Silicon Valley” In September 2021, Replit founder Amjad Masad tweeted: “The most gangster story in Silicon Valley is Steve Jobs buying Pixar for $5m, investing $50m, operating at a loss for a decade — so much so he had to…
Starting a software co is like building a plane & trying to get it to lift off before you run out of runway Starting a biotech co is like trying to solve an escape room before time runs out For software co, getting the plane off the ground requires primarily ppl who can work…
Keith Rabois: “I tell founders not to worry about runway. Worry about lift.” “If you think about lift in a plane context, a company is only valuable if you achieve lift. Runway is a tactic for achieving lift, and you may need to extend the runway so that you have more time to…
growing crop of biotech newco's that are leveraging china preclin execution (not just CROs) coupled with US translational bio + clinical trial design mostly working in genetic medicines, but also in ADCs and antibodies funded by mostly non-US biotech VCs, although a couple…
Only two types of founders getting funded right now in biotech 1. phd drop-out with touch of tism working on longevity 2. multi time biotech CEO who has returned $ bn's to specialist biotech funds sorry, don't make the rules around here
just back from shanghai / beijing / HK, met several chinese pharma, 10+ biotechs, local VCs - notes / comments from the trip: * what China did to ab's / bispecifics / TCEs, they are about to do (or already have) to genetic medicines * there are now 120+ "in vivo CAR-T"…
The generalists are back 🙌
We should be investing far more into AI-driven drug discovery. Every extra unit of compute has the potential to translate directly into more lives saved (and can have exponential returns). That’s the purest expression of what technology is meant to do.
the existence of REGN sets a high bar for AI bio tx startups Looking at 6 (and likely two more) approvals out of 13 early clin assets from 2017 pipeline proof positive that genetics focus + high level drug discovery execution can vastly outcompete industry avg (~20% successful…
In light of recent phase III successes (REGN1908-1909 and garetosmab), it's kind of interesting to reflect on the $REGN pipeline of 8 years ago when these two were in phase I. Of 13 early/mid programs: 6 (46%) have been approved in their intended indications: Dupi,…
reality bending vs truth-seeking there's a duality, natural tension between the two but do both and you are a master of the universe
sorry to report but on the current trajectory there will only be two types of biotechs in the US in < 5 years: 1. tech bio 2. chinese CRO wrappers
Building a globally competitive US biotech in 2025: > Focus on novel biology why? —> The Chinese biotech VC ecosystem struggles to fund novel biology (actively disincentivizes going after non clinically validated targets) —> The US biotech ecosystem struggles to execute on…
Worth a read on this Sunday morning fs.blog/great-talks/mu…
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