How are some people so relaxed in a seemingly difficult time? We're definitely not on drugs LOL, but it's a combination of understanding the vision of why we do what we do & experience in the market aka. time spent in the market living through variances You need to think like…
BREAKING: ISM Manufacturing just came in at 52.6, versus expectations of 48.5. That’s a huge upside surprise. This lines up with our view that ISM would start moving higher in 2026. Here’s our thesis: The ISM has been deviating from history. It has always followed a 4-year…
Even though PMI just came in lower than expected... We still think it moves higher down the road. Here's why: - Image 1: Industrial production is curling up - Image 2: Durable goods are steadily increasing - Image 3: Global M2 money supply is trending higher - Image 4:…
💫Medium Term Trend Directions $TOTAL : SHORT🔴| Score : -1 $BTC : SHORT🔴| Score : -1 $ETH : SHORT🔴| Score : -1 $SOL : SHORT🔴| Score : -1 $ETHBTC : SHORT🔴| Score : -0.89 $SOLBTC : SHORT🔴| Score: -0.89 $SOLETH : LONG🟢| Score : 0.24🔼 ALTCOINS : LONG🟢| Score : 0.43🔼
Looks like chaos is the new normal. Watch 73K for $BTC to form an "Extreme" Valuation. On shorter-term bands, we're scraping the bottom of the barrel. As for M2 Deviation yes, it's on a bottom macro signal. Next stop?
What the market looks like right now
Bitcoin Stress Index at Peak: Market Absorbs the Shock New ☕️Adler AM 👇 axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-stress…
Played out as expected. Trend strength has significantly increased market-wide, which has been why market power has started to turn up. There is still room for the market to trend lower.
$BTC Expecting this downward move to continue, as there is still plenty of room for both volatility and trend strength in the market to move higher. With uncertainty high, it will probably take some time for risk seeking sentiment to return to crypto. For now, patience is…
One thing I notice often in comments is that people approach data with a verification mindset. They have an idea, a hunch that a signal exists, and they seek evidence to confirm it. But this gets the process backwards. The more productive question is not "how can I verify this…
⚖️Valuation and Volatility Channels $BTC: Strongly oversold at -2.13 standard deviations Mean: $86362 Momentum: Bearish🔴 Volatility: High $ETH: Slightly oversold at -0.61 standard deviations Mean: $2828 Momentum: Bearish🔴 Volatility: High $SOL: Moderately oversold at -1.79…
If you're a text-based learner like me and someone who genuinely enjoys reading as the primary way to absorb information, I've stumbled onto something that might be incredibly useful to you. What I've been doing is dumping all my bookmarks on a topic into Claude and asking it to…
Just like that, 50D breadth back to capitulation levels.
🔮BTC Outlook Position is very simple, I am bullish on the Crypto Market based on macro data. 1. China Liquidity Injections UP 2. M2 Deviation High + M2 Watch Spiking 3. DXY → Down 4. Macro Extrapolator → OVERSOLD + Forward Macro stating positive conditions a month from now🚀
Keep your strategies simple. If a strategy requires 15 parameters to perform well, it’s likely overfitted. The most robust strategies usually have simple entry/exit logic with only a few parameters.
💫Medium Term Trend Directions $TOTAL : SHORT🔴| Score : -1.01 $BTC : SHORT🔴| Score : -1.01🔽 $ETH : SHORT🔴| Score : -1.01 $SOL : SHORT🔴| Score : -1.01🔽 $ETHBTC : SHORT🔴| Score : -0.9🔼 $SOLBTC : SHORT🔴| Score: -0.9🔽 $SOLETH : SHORT🔴| Score : -0.46🔽 ALTCOINS :…
🔺Dominant Asset Rotation System Dominant Asset: 1.🟠 $BTC - SHORT🔴 2.🔵 $ETH - SHORT🔴 System exposure: 100% CASH
Small uptick in market power following the decline back into the 93 - 84k range, mainly due to an increase in volatility. We might possibly see some consolidation in the short-term, however I am expecting volatility and trend strength to continue to increase in the coming…
Expecting a strong directional move soon. Whether that resolves itself to the upside or downside I don't know, but when market power is at extreme lows historically the market directionally moves strongly shortly after.
Today’s reading falls within the lowest 4% of all valuations.
Net Realized P/L has dropped by 97% and returned to zero. The last time this happened was in June 2022 - right before the drop from $30K to $16K. Whales are still in profit (a 25-80% buffer), so there is no panic yet. But the market is being supported not by buyers - but by the…
Both BTC and ETH are tagging and bouncing from the lower band at 3 STD here. Shorts also seem to be closing, so for now at least, it's just a liquidation reaction.
With all the potential for more war and uncertainty in the market, we're not going to see a consistent bid right now. It's just too much risk The positive skew in returns won't materialise even with stable macro conditions, M2 going up, DXY going down. The market can stay…
Green shoots sprouting on the short-term holder momentum indicator. You ready? $BTC 🍿
United States Trends
- 1. Pacers N/A
- 2. Clippers N/A
- 3. Zubac N/A
- 4. Cam Thomas N/A
- 5. Kawhi N/A
- 6. Opus 4.6 N/A
- 7. Mathurin N/A
- 8. Pat Riley N/A
- 9. Hali N/A
- 10. Eric Gordon N/A
- 11. Lakers N/A
- 12. Jose N/A
- 13. Shams N/A
- 14. Giannis N/A
- 15. Josh Harris N/A
- 16. Heat N/A
- 17. Nick Richards N/A
- 18. Bucks N/A
- 19. Nancy Guthrie N/A
- 20. Minott N/A
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