Dave Kellogg

@Kellblog

Independent consultant, EIR at Balderton Capital, author of Kellblog, and co-host of The Metrics Brothers podcast. See http://kellblog.com for disclaimers.

Silicon Valley, CA

kellblog.com

Joined December 2009

81KPosts 25KFollowers 6KFollowing

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Dave Kellogg reposted

Brian Halligan

@bhalligan

Nov 13

“Startups are somewhere between completely impossible and very, very, very, very hard.” That's @parkerconrad, CEO of @Rippling, on the first episode of Long Strange Trip. Parker's got one hell of a story. Violently fired by David Sacks from Zenefits. Character assassinated in…

Dave Kellogg reposted

junkbondinvestor

@junkbondinvest

Nov 13

Apollo says 77 cents. KKR says 91 cents. Same loan. Same company. Same quarter. Fourteen point gap on Medallia debt. Record spread for private credit. Illiquidity premium includes the premium of making up your own price.

junkbondinvest's tweet image. Apollo says 77 cents. KKR says 91 cents. Same loan. Same company. Same quarter.

Fourteen point gap on Medallia debt. Record spread for private credit.

Illiquidity premium includes the premium of making up your own price.

Dave Kellogg reposted

BuccoCapital Bloke

@buccocapital

4 h

Saylor in a lifeboat while the main ship sinks is an...interesting choice

Michael Saylor

@saylor

6 h

HODL

Dave Kellogg

@Kellblog

2 h

Well that’s an interesting strategy. I wonder if it actually would have been worse if they provided low-ball guidance. No news is often scarier than bad news.

Kellblog's tweet image. Well that’s an interesting strategy. I wonder if it actually would have been worse if they provided low-ball guidance. No news is often scarier than bad news.

Dave Kellogg reposted

Jeff Richards

@jrichlive

3 h

Big challenge for the public market right now is the majority of publicly available co data on AI is at infrastructure level. If leading "demand" side companies went public (Cursor, OpenAI, Anthropic, Vercel, Replit, etc), folks would have a very different view of the cycle. 🤞

Dave Kellogg reposted

NIK

@ns123abc

23 h

Why is OAI going into slop and porn? “OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar confirmed to investors that time spent on ChatGPT has been declining since August 2025” Their engagement over time:

ns123abc's tweet image. Why is OAI going into slop and porn?

“OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar confirmed to investors that time spent on ChatGPT has been declining since August 2025”

Their engagement over time:

Alex Heath

@alexeheath

Nov 12

Sources: During a recent private call, OpenAI's investors asked about external signs that ChatGPT's growth is slowing. CFO Sarah Friar said time spent was down since "content restrictions" were added in Q3, but that the trend is expected to "reverse" sources.news/p/chatgpts-qui…

alexeheath's tweet card. OpenAI’s CFO told investors that ChatGPT's engagement has softened. Also: Mark Zuckerberg's AI bubble warning to Meta employees.

ChatGPT's quiet slump, Zuck's AI bubble warning

Source: sources.news

Dave Kellogg

@Kellblog

2 h

So he’s just straight up raiding the pantry now

Axios

@axios

Nov 13

JUST IN: Schiff seeks to block $230 million payout to Trump axios.com/2025/11/13/ada…

axios's tweet card. It's the latest move in a long, ongoing battle between Trump and Schiff.

Scoop: Schiff seeks to block $230 million payout to Trump

Source: axios.com

Dave Kellogg

@Kellblog

2 h

Wait, so people are trading credit default swaps on Oracle’s debt? I just hadn’t heard the term CDS in quite a while and thought of them on mortgage-backed securities, not corporate debt, but alas …

BuccoCapital Bloke

@buccocapital

6 h

As Oracle continues to fall, I thought this was a great article from from @MrMojoRisinX on who is buying $ORCL CDS, and what their motivations might be Give the man (and his substack) a follow. He's doing some of the most interesting writing on FinTwit

buccocapital's tweet image. As Oracle continues to fall, I thought this was a great article from from @MrMojoRisinX on who is buying $ORCL CDS, and what their motivations might be

Give the man (and his substack) a follow. He's doing some of the most interesting writing on FinTwit

Dave Kellogg reposted

Pegasus

@PegasusFund

15 h

Feels like this went largely un-noticed but it’s an important read as OpenAI starts to have an unnerving attitude about its financing

PegasusFund's tweet image. Feels like this went largely un-noticed but it’s an important read as OpenAI starts to have an unnerving attitude about its financing

Financial Times

@FT

Nov 12

How high are OpenAI’s compute costs? Possibly a lot higher than we thought on.ft.com/43NCJs3

FT's tweet card. Inference inferred, revenue reconstructed, cash burn quantified

How high are OpenAI’s compute costs? Possibly a lot higher than we thought

Source: ft.com

Dave Kellogg reposted

Dr. Émile P. Torres 🛑

@xriskology

23 h

Sam Altman has a long history of lying to, manipulating, and abusing people--from his own sister (@anniealtman108) to his employees at OpenAI. Here's a short thread with some rather shocking examples. The evidence is in, and it shows a clear pattern of bad behavior.

xriskology's tweet image. Sam Altman has a long history of lying to, manipulating, and abusing people--from his own sister (@anniealtman108) to his employees at OpenAI. Here's a short thread with some rather shocking examples. The evidence is in, and it shows a clear pattern of bad behavior.

Dave Kellogg

@Kellblog

3 h

Cohort vs. segment — let’s do this one more time.

Dave Kellogg

@Kellblog

3 h

The Metrics Brothers discuss the forward-deployed engineer ) podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…

Dave Kellogg reposted

StockMarket.News

@_Investinq

Nov 13

Michael Burry just deregistered Scion Asset Management officially killing the fund. His October 27 letter was brutally honest: "My estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets." Translation: he's been wrong, or early, and…

_Investinq's tweet image. Michael Burry just deregistered Scion Asset Management officially killing the fund. His October 27 letter was brutally honest: "My estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets." Translation: he's been wrong, or early, and…

Cassandra Unchained

@michaeljburry

Nov 13

So, I bought 50,000 of these things for $1.84. Each of those things is 100 doodads. So I spent $9,200,000, Not $912,000,000. @CNBC @WSJ @FT Each of those doodads let me sell $PLTR at $50 in 2027. That was done last month. On to much better things Nov 25th.

michaeljburry's tweet image. So, I bought 50,000 of these things for $1.84.
Each of those things is 100 doodads.
So I spent $9,200,000,

Not $912,000,000. @CNBC @WSJ @FT

Each of those doodads let me sell $PLTR at $50 in 2027.

That was done last month.
On to much better things Nov 25th.

Dave Kellogg reposted

David Perell

@david_perell

19 h

The story of how Under Armour landed Stephen Curry in the first place will forever go down as one of the all-time craziest business mistakes.

david_perell's tweet image. The story of how Under Armour landed Stephen Curry in the first place will forever go down as one of the all-time craziest business mistakes.

Shams Charania

@ShamsCharania

20 h

Golden State Warriors star Stephen Curry and Under Armour have parted ways, ending their longstanding partnership. Curry's standalone endeavor Curry Brand will move forward independently.

Dave Kellogg reposted

Priyanshu Ratnakar

@0xratnakar

Nov 12

wake up babygirl, now news is written by chatgpt

Dave Kellogg reposted

Jeff Morris Jr.

@jmj

Nov 13

Venture Capital Musical Chairs (And Why Founders Should Care) When I first got into venture capital, I assumed that General Partners stayed at firms for most of their careers. From the outside, venture capital shops looked like stable institutions. At the very least, they felt…

Dave Kellogg reposted

litquidity

@litcapital

15 h

Pre-revenue and pre-product $50B startup btw

Shirin Ghaffary

@shiringhaffary

21 h

NEW: Mira Murati's startup Thinking Machines Lab is in early talks to raise a new round of funding at a valuation of roughly $50 billion, more than 4x valuation from a few months ago. w/ @EdLudlow bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

shiringhaffary's tweet card. Thinking Machines Lab, an artificial intelligence startup founded by former OpenAI executive Mira Murati, is in early talks to raise a new round of funding at a roughly $50 billion valuation,...

Murati’s Thinking Machines in Funding Talks at $50 Billion Value

Source: bloomberg.com

Dave Kellogg

@Kellblog

15 h

Well, that’s one way to avoid paying capital gains tax

CtheLightTrading

@canuck2usa

Nov 13

Hedge fund investor Anthony Scaramucci’s firm sent a letter to clients in his opportunity zone fund with a sobering message: You’re likely facing a total loss -- BBRG