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metaculus's profile picture. Aggregating human & AI forecasts on critical topics. Bot Forecasting: http://metaculus.com/aib Partner w/ us: http://metaculus.com/services Updates: http://metaculus.com/news

Metaculus

@metaculus

Aggregating human & AI forecasts on critical topics. Bot Forecasting: http://metaculus.com/aib Partner w/ us: http://metaculus.com/services Updates: http://metaculus.com/news

3KBài đăng 12KNgười theo dõi 748Đang theo dõi
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metaculus's profile picture.
Metaculus
 @metaculus
29 thg 10

Which questions do you want to see in the 2026 ACX Prediction Contest?

metaculus's tweet image. Which questions do you want to see in the 2026 ACX Prediction Contest?
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thatMikeBishop's profile picture.
Mike 🇨🇦🇺🇸
 @thatMikeBishop
30 thg 10

Call for animal-focused forecasting questions - ⁦@metaculus⁩ forecasting tournament — EA Forum forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pxYdSh3h…

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robertwiblin's profile picture.
Rob Wiblin
@robertwiblin
28 thg 10

The Metaculus forecast for arrival the first AGI has extended out ~3 years since its all-time low set in February this year. Now at May 2033. The 'weak' AGI standard, without robotic manipulation, is up from Sep 2026 to Oct 2027. (HT @ben_j_todd)

robertwiblin's tweet image. The Metaculus forecast for arrival the first AGI has extended out ~3 years since its all-time low set in February this year. Now at May 2033. The 'weak' AGI standard, without robotic manipulation, is up from Sep 2026 to Oct 2027. (HT @ben_j_todd)
robertwiblin's tweet image. The Metaculus forecast for arrival the first AGI has extended out ~3 years since its all-time low set in February this year. Now at May 2033. The 'weak' AGI standard, without robotic manipulation, is up from Sep 2026 to Oct 2027. (HT @ben_j_todd)
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StefanFSchubert's profile picture.
Stefan Schubert
@StefanFSchubert
28 thg 10

In a @metaculus forecasting tournament ten human pros and 96 bots participated. Each human beat all the bots. The big drop-off in the chart below is between the last human and the first bot.

StefanFSchubert's tweet image. In a @metaculus forecasting tournament ten human pros and 96 bots participated. Each human beat all the bots. The big drop-off in the chart below is between the last human and the first bot.
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metaculus's profile picture.
Metaculus
 @metaculus
22 thg 10

Nice use of crowd forecasts in academic work. MIT Sloan studies AI release events, yields, and includes Metaculus AI forecasts in the analysis.

MITSloan's profile picture. Ideas made to matter.
MIT Sloan School of Management
@MITSloan
22 thg 10

Falling bond prices could be an indication that investors don’t believe AI will have a widespread positive effect on domestic living standards, particularly consumption. bit.ly/3L4y0LS

MITSloan's tweet card. How do generative AI model releases impact consumption expectations? New MIT Sloan research shows large, unexpected reactions in the bond market.
What the bond market has to say about generative AI | MIT Sloan
Nguồn: mitsloan.mit.edu
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