David Mulholland
@nipoligraph
Data analysis for Northern Ireland politics
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The news page gives summaries of recent coverage, searchable by person. These are AI-powered and give a good guide to recent activities. Also available on the individual profile pages. nipoligraph.co.uk/what-we-report nipoligraph.co.uk/individual?mla… nipoligraph.co.uk/individual?mla…
A few updates recently. Twitter's data became prohibitively expensive to access, so NIPG now tracks Bluesky activity instead. It is much less widely used than Twitter by NI politicians, and skewed towards two parties. If everyone could switch over to Bluesky, that'd be great.
Full write-up with further analysis and interactive maps 👇 focaldata.com/blog/focaldata…
focaldata.com
Focaldata US presidential election MRP: Trump narrowly on course for White House
Focaldata US presidential election MRP: Trump narrowly on course for White House
Types of gifts received by NI Assembly departments in recent years. Education ministers get lots of homemade, keepsake gifts. See the full gifts & hospitality dataset here nipoligraph.co.uk/blog/odni-mini… @opendatani
A few new datasets are on NIPG now, via @opendatani. Here is the value of gifts received by NI Assembly departments (not always kept/used personally by the minister) in recent years. Explore the full gifts & hospitality data here: nipoligraph.co.uk/blog/odni-mini…
Another measure of status within the party could be activity in the Assembly, where Mr O'Toole is by far the most frequent contributor in recent plenary debates, though others including Daniel McCrossan have asked more questions to ministers. nipoligraph.co.uk/what-they-do
Confirming what is obvious, Claire Hanna and Matthew O'Toole have the biggest print media footprint in NI PoliGraph's news tracking, making them them the natural names to be mentioned in respect of the leadership election. nipoligraph.co.uk/what-we-report
NIPG tracker after two recent polls. The ULiv poll asked about voting intention in the next Westminster election, but has been included as if it were a regular party support question. The slow flow of support from TUV back to DUP appears to continue.
Belatedly, the August LucidTalk poll showed continued swings SF-to-SDLP and TUV-to-DUP. Note that compared to the raw poll data, the headline numbers for DUP and UUP reported for the poll seem to have been misquoted by 1% each.
It was a forecast-busting performance from Sinn Fein. To be fair, the indications were there in recent polls, but I didn't expect them to translate so directly into local votes. SDLP, UUP, Green, even Alli pushed towards lower end of expectations by the SF over-performance.
Those Alliance gains are predicted to most likely come in Causeway Coast & Glens (+4), Newry, Mourne & Down (+3), Lisburn & Castlereagh (+3), and Antrim & Newtownabbey (+2). Sinn Fein gains are predicted in Fermanagh & Omagh (+3), Derry & Strabane (+2), and Belfast City (+2).
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