William Sorg

Dusty May losses in March Madness: 3 Jake Diebler losses in March Madness: 0

In recent months, @wsorgAnalytics and I brought sports analytics to track through win probability models! For a centuries-old sport, there's surprisingly little information about predictive modeling. So, we decided to do something about it and establish a benchmark...

In what will be the final individual track event of the 2025 World Championships, the men's 5000m promises to be a tactical race in which no athlete can be overlooked. Fresh off his stunning 10k victory, Jimmy Gressier enters as the narrow favorite. Nico Young, Grant Fisher, and…

The women's 800 is Keely's race to lose as the British athlete has been dominant in her few races on the circuit. Watch for her training partner Georgia Hunter Bell and Audrey Werro to make up the medalists, while I like Mary Moraa and Jess Hull as dark horses in this event.

Stay tuned for the men's 800 tmw, as defending OLY champion Emmanuel Wanyonyi looks to become world champion. Marco Arop, the reigning World Champion, has run Wanyonyi close in each championship and while the Kenyan is the favorite, each of these 6 have a strong case to medal!

Beatrice Chebet. Faith Kipyegon. The two Kenyan GOATs headline the women's 5k. Returning from golds in the 10k and 1500, respectively, Chebet and Kipyegon are the ones to beat. But there's no doubt Gudaf Tsegay will have a say in the outcome, and expect Ngetich and Battoocletti…

The men’s 400 hurdles should be great yet again, but our models lean towards Rai Benjamin as the slight favorite with Warholm just behind him. Dos Santos has looked the least impressive in the heats and seems to have a little momentum going into the final.

The Men's 200M is one of the most exciting races of the WC. Noah Lyles is no doubt the favorite, but don't forget about reigning olympic champion Letsile Tebogo, US 100M champion Kenny Bednarek, and the young Bryan Levell. Who poses the biggest threat to Noah's throne?

After watching Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone run 47.78 in the 400m, you have to imagine Femke Bol is feeling relieved that she doesn't have to contend with the world record holder this year. The Dutch star will face a talented field, including Olympic silver medalist Anna Cockrell…

Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone will look to make history and win the women’s 400 meter title. Despite a great performance in the semis, SML will face steep competition in the form of Marileidy Paulino and Salwa Eid Naser. Who ya got in one of the most anticipated races of the meet!

After Habz, Ingebrigtsen, Phanuel Koech, and Hocker all failed to survive the rounds, the 1500m world title looks to be a showdown between Laros and Kerr. Laros has been in the best form as of late, while Kerr has the experience and proven success on the world stage. Still, given…

Cordell Tinch has been close to unbeatable this yr and he comes in as a favorite for the Men's 110 hurdles. The reigning world and olympic champion Grant Holloway is a big question mark and he needs to produce something we haven't seen from him this year to take the W.

Winfred Yavi will look to defend her 3000 Steeplechase title tomorrow as she races rivals Faith Cherotich and Peruth Chemutai. With these Tokyo races being so unpredictable, keep an eye out for how these three approach as they have PRs of 10+ seconds than the rest of the field.

The female distance GOAT Faith Kipyegon will defend her 1500M #WORLDS2025 title tomorrow morning. Her dominance is reflected in our models below, as she is the biggest favorite in any event that we have recorded at the #WorldChampionships. Is there any potential of an upset here?

Olympic gold medalist Masai Russell comes in as the slight favorite this year in an event that has fluctuated A LOT throughout the season, leaving room for contenders like Grace Stark or Ackera Nugent to pull of an upset. #Tokyo #Tokyo2025 #WorldAthleticsChampionships #WAC2025

Tomorrow morning, Soufiane El Bakkali will look cement his name as the greatest steepler of all time and defend his throne. Watch out for Lamecha Girma though as the Ethiopian is the current WR holder but has only raced 1x this season after his terrible fall at the Olympics.

While the women's 10k had a clear favorite in Beatrice Chebet, the men's 10k is wide open. Our pick, Grant Fisher, is chasing his first global gold medal. But he'll face stiff competition from Ethiopians Berihu Aregawi, Selemon Barega, and Yomif Kejelcha, as well as countryman…

The women's 100 is one of the best head-to-heads of the meet, as Julian Alfred takes on Melissa Jefferson Wooden. MJW narrowly beat Alfred at Pre, but this race will come down to which athlete has made the right adjustments since their last race. Our bet is MJW. #trackandfield

Kishane is the favorite for the Men's 100; however, there are questions about his health. Reigning olympic champion Noah Lyles has had a late start this yr and his 100 performances have been sub-par, but will he rise to the occasion again? Tune in tomorrow morning to find out!

Can anyone compete with Beatrice Chebet? The 5k and 10k world record holder will look to win her first world championship gold and is an overwhelming favorite. But Olympic silver medalist Nadia Battocletti, fellow Kenyan Agnes Jebet Ngetich, and rival Gudaf Tsegay will look to…

A Diamond League title and a trip to the World Championships. That's what's on the line for Yared Nuguse. Nuguse has captured the sport's attention with his attempt to qualify for Worlds after he faltered at USAs. But a win won't come easy. Phanuel Koech, whose ascension to…