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@AlexPickersgil
Bayesian / Vol / Commodities / Cryptos
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If you’re having a bad year cause you lost a lot of money in the market remember that Elon Musk has lost $200 billion and is still making jokes on twitter
Don't worry guys everything is fine!
$VIX Call/Put Ratio has surged higher over the last few weeks. Historically, these spikes have foreshadowed a large upside move in volatility.
I'm reading everything that #ZoltanPozsar puts out for many years...His latest piece "War and Interest Rates" (August 1st) was a true masterpiece...Here are some highlights in a #thread🧵:
Here Is Why The VIX Is Likely To Explode Higher Soon | Kris Sidial youtu.be/f2IXf_2d8p4 via @YouTube
youtube.com
YouTube
Here Is Why The VIX Is Likely To Explode Higher Soon | Kris Sidial
30 day realized $SPX vol (per @SPGlobal) is now trading above the VIX, something that generally shows after major selloffs wherein IV "premium" needs to reset to calmer/higher equity markets. Often that vol premium can be serve as rally fuel But this time it's different®...
Asking which fiat currency will replace the dollar as the global reserve currency is asking the wrong question. Having a single country's fiat currency/bond at the heart of the global reserve system was the anomaly to begin with.
When sovereign debt/GDP gets to very high levels, various forms of financial repression are used and the yields on those sovereign debt instruments fail to keep up with price inflation. It's the only way to make the math work.
Still, at least Boris Johnson and his team get to have a leaving party…
There is a lot going on in the digital asset space but also nothing going on and that is the problem... Let me give you some thoughts... 1/
My wife’s boyfriend called me an idiot for longing BTC at $30k, we will see who’s the idiot now 😂😂
Mk
. @RaoulGMI discusses the latest edition of Global Macro Investors & a section called "The Greatest Trade." What is it? Watch 👇
It's a good idea to follow some people you disagree with. Otherwise you risk ending up in an echo chamber. Resist the temptation to tribalize and segment yourself, and instead focus on building connections and strength-testing your ideas.
I must admit that investing in crypto is not easy. Its not about price volatility, which is expected; its on one hand the people attack who you for not worshipping their favourite project, but also mean-revertionists doubting you, and sceptics hating you. Exhausting but amusing.
I just want to be clear, with regards to being irresponsibly long bitcoin: I don't use leverage I fully expect to have to deal with a 50% drawdown and, Im ok with it. I look at my allocation versus liquid assets and not my house etc I am lucky have an income stream, which is key
The biggest impediment to BTC adoption are bitcoin maximalists. Few understand this. Be more open. Don't try to ram your points home. Support people and don't be tribal and never be abusive and insulting if someone doesn't share your BTC only views. It's a big world out there.
I know, I know...its crazy but I don't think he is joking. If you want to go to Mars, you are the kind of guy what wants his own currency. Also gives you access to unlimited funding and actually some useful other benefits (IoT payments etc). It's basically a Elon community token.
Working with Doge devs to improve system transaction efficiency. Potentially promising.
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