Axel
@AxelAdller
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💡Insight #64 is live: Bitcoin updated ATH $125K on inflows of $3.24 billion into spot ETFs. adlerscryptoinsights.substack.com/p/bitcoin-tren… 🙌 Get the full breakdown in my latest report.
Uncle Peter switched to Ethereum😅
As bad as Bitcoin looks, Ethereum looks even worse. While Bitcoin is only down about 10% from its record high priced in U.S. dollars, Ether is down 21%. It’s now trading near $3,900. If it breaks support around $3,350, a quick move down to $1,500 is a real risk. Get out now!
Bitcoin Futures Flow Index dropped to 13%. The price is currently trading below Fair Value of $113.3K. The main reaction should be expected on Monday.
The spread between Bitcoin futures and spot has turned negative, while open interest dropped by $11B - a massive deleveraging.
Following yesterday's statement by Trump about raising tariffs on Chinese goods by 100% in response to China's export restrictions on rare earth metals, markets reacted with a sharp decline. At one point, Bitcoin dropped to $108K, then partially recovered and is now trading at…
The HL Investment view is that bitcoin is not an asset class, and we do not think cryptocurrency has characteristics that mean it should be included in portfolios for growth or income and shouldn’t be relied upon to help clients meet their financial goals. And yet -they’re…
10Y TIPS Yields dropped from 2.3% - 1.7% real rates are declining, liquidity is returning. Fed softness = risk-on mode: BTC, gold, stocks receive inflows. As long as TIPS keeps falling - tailwind.
A more indicative metric for miners condition, the Miner Financial Health Index, takes into account miner profitability (hashprice), block profit, fee share, and overall cash flow. Today the index = 59% this is a healthy, neutral-to-bullish miner economy without signs of selling…
Puell Multiple = 1.1 at BTC price = $121.6K. This is a zone slightly above miners' average revenue neither stress nor euphoria. The risk of capitulation is low, but there's also no overheating like at cycle peaks. I would call this a neutral-to-bullish backdrop.
Bitcoin 4Y Сycles (days / multiple): Cycle #1 - 1,232d / х10K Cycle #2 - 1,467d / х16 Cycle #3 - 1,424d / х3.7 Current - 1,432d / х1.8
Luxembourg Claims Bragging Rights as First Eurozone Nation to Invest in Bitcoin coindesk.com/policy/2025/10… via @coindesk
Over the last 30 days, Long-Term Holders have sold 295K BTC (9.8K BTC/day). This is an elevated but not extreme level compared to peaks in May and December 2024 (800K). Such flow is compatible with a bullish trend, as long as demand for coins absorbs the distribution, which is…
Fed officials were nearly unanimous labor market is cooling, inflation easing, and a 25bp cut was the right move. One member pushed for 50bp, but most preferred a gradual pivot. The tone stays dovish, confirming a slow path toward easing.
Shares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) trades above Max Pain - options setup is neutral-to-bullish into next week.
DXY reaction following the 2025 U.S. Government shutdown.
Over the past quarter, short-term holders' supply increased by 559K BTC, rising from a low of 4.38 million to 4.94 million BTC. A significant volume of new buyers entered the market.
Since spring 2024, a steady downward trend in amplitude has been visible in the small transaction segment (up to $1K). Each new spike in retail participation is lower than the previous one, while the price is making higher highs. The 30-day average volume is currently $106M per…
European stock markets are bracing for a quiet start amid ongoing political uncertainty in France, which has weighed on sentiment following the resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu.
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