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Delwin | Military Theorist

@DelwinStrategy

Military Strategy & History | Decoding Global Strategies & Past Campaigns| Data-driven Insights 🌍 | #MilitaryStrategy #MilitaryHistory #Geopolitics

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1/7 Part 2 - Russia’s Baltic Window: A Gamble NATO Cannot Ignore. 🧵 We assess a ~60% chance of Russian operational success by D+30 against the Baltics absent decisive U.S. engagement. The root causes: Suwałki throughput, Kaliningrad fires/IADS, drone saturation, and lack of…

DelwinStrategy's tweet image. 1/7 Part 2 - Russia’s Baltic Window: A Gamble NATO Cannot Ignore. 🧵
We assess a ~60% chance of Russian operational success by D+30 against the Baltics absent decisive U.S. engagement.
The root causes: Suwałki throughput, Kaliningrad fires/IADS, drone saturation, and lack of…
DelwinStrategy's tweet image. 1/7 Part 2 - Russia’s Baltic Window: A Gamble NATO Cannot Ignore. 🧵
We assess a ~60% chance of Russian operational success by D+30 against the Baltics absent decisive U.S. engagement.
The root causes: Suwałki throughput, Kaliningrad fires/IADS, drone saturation, and lack of…
DelwinStrategy's tweet image. 1/7 Part 2 - Russia’s Baltic Window: A Gamble NATO Cannot Ignore. 🧵
We assess a ~60% chance of Russian operational success by D+30 against the Baltics absent decisive U.S. engagement.
The root causes: Suwałki throughput, Kaliningrad fires/IADS, drone saturation, and lack of…

Delwin | Military Theorist 已轉發

Video showing destroyed Ukrainian armored and unarmored vehicles north of Pokrovsk, demonstrating how difficult the situation is for logistics. t.me/epoddubny/25085


Delwin | Military Theorist 已轉發

Russia’s T-90 tank production in 2024 reached around 240 units, including both new and modernized tanks. But internal planning papers analyzed by Frontelligence Insight show Moscow’s plan to lift output by 80% and launch production of a new T90 variant. 🧵Our Special Report:

Tatarigami_UA's tweet image. Russia’s T-90 tank production in 2024 reached around 240 units, including both new and modernized tanks. But internal planning papers analyzed by Frontelligence Insight show Moscow’s plan to lift output by 80% and launch production of a new T90 variant. 🧵Our Special Report:

Delwin | Military Theorist 已轉發

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Innovation technologique: nouvelle modification d’ogive pour les drones Geran 🇷🇺. ▶️Elle serait remplie d’un mélange incendiaire liquide. ▶️Intégration également de capteur LIDAR (Light Detection And Ranging). ⏬1/2.

GrillardEric's tweet image. 🇺🇦🇷🇺 Innovation technologique: nouvelle modification d’ogive pour les drones Geran 🇷🇺.
▶️Elle serait remplie d’un mélange incendiaire liquide.
▶️Intégration également de capteur LIDAR (Light Detection And Ranging).
⏬1/2.

Delwin | Military Theorist 已轉發

"Il n’est pas besoin d'appliquer de nouveaux systèmes, mais de donner avant tout confiance dans le présent, sécurité dans l’avenir. [...] Certaines personnes disent: L’Empire, c’est la guerre. Moi je dis: L’Empire, c’est la paix." Louis-Napoléon Bonaparte, alors président de la…

CorbeauDlicieux's tweet image. "Il n’est pas besoin d'appliquer de nouveaux systèmes, mais de donner avant tout confiance dans le présent, sécurité dans l’avenir. [...] Certaines personnes disent: L’Empire, c’est la guerre. Moi je dis: L’Empire, c’est la paix."

Louis-Napoléon Bonaparte, alors président de la…

Pour compléter cet article, plusieurs éléments d’analyse : 1. Initiative russe depuis octobre 2023 Depuis octobre 2023, la Russie conserve l’initiative stratégique. L’Ukraine demeure incapable de la contester en 2025 : l’échec de l’offensive de Koursk l’an dernier a marqué sa…

DelwinStrategy's tweet image. Pour compléter cet article, plusieurs éléments d’analyse :
1. Initiative russe depuis octobre 2023
Depuis octobre 2023, la Russie conserve l’initiative stratégique. L’Ukraine demeure incapable de la contester en 2025 : l’échec de l’offensive de Koursk l’an dernier a marqué sa…

Fixation of reserves at Pokrovsk having the expected effect… Russian field tactics are not sophisticated, but the operational plan is astute.

As said yesterday, when I still couldn't post about the specifics, the situation is much worse for the Ukrainians than what's shown on public maps, and even pro-Russian ones. Russian forces control Novohryhorivka, the well-built trench systems south of it (which they use…

Playfra0's tweet image. As said yesterday, when I still couldn't post about the specifics, the situation is much worse for the Ukrainians than what's shown on public maps, and even pro-Russian ones.

Russian forces control Novohryhorivka, the well-built trench systems south of it (which they use…
Playfra0's tweet image. As said yesterday, when I still couldn't post about the specifics, the situation is much worse for the Ukrainians than what's shown on public maps, and even pro-Russian ones.

Russian forces control Novohryhorivka, the well-built trench systems south of it (which they use…
Playfra0's tweet image. As said yesterday, when I still couldn't post about the specifics, the situation is much worse for the Ukrainians than what's shown on public maps, and even pro-Russian ones.

Russian forces control Novohryhorivka, the well-built trench systems south of it (which they use…


Delwin | Military Theorist 已轉發

Rzekome dokumenty dotyczące strat rus wojsk. Jeden z ukr mniej znanych NGO-s "Projekt Chcę Żyć" @hochuzhit_com wrzucił dzisiaj dwie fotografie przedstawiające rzekomo tajne rus wojskowe dokumenty, dotyczące strat armii rosyjskiej za pierwsze osiem miesięcy 2025 roku,. Zrobiono…

Thorkill65's tweet image. Rzekome dokumenty dotyczące strat rus wojsk.

Jeden z ukr mniej znanych NGO-s "Projekt Chcę Żyć" @hochuzhit_com wrzucił dzisiaj dwie fotografie przedstawiające rzekomo tajne rus wojskowe dokumenty, dotyczące strat armii rosyjskiej za pierwsze osiem miesięcy 2025 roku,. Zrobiono…
Thorkill65's tweet image. Rzekome dokumenty dotyczące strat rus wojsk.

Jeden z ukr mniej znanych NGO-s "Projekt Chcę Żyć" @hochuzhit_com wrzucił dzisiaj dwie fotografie przedstawiające rzekomo tajne rus wojskowe dokumenty, dotyczące strat armii rosyjskiej za pierwsze osiem miesięcy 2025 roku,. Zrobiono…

Delwin | Military Theorist 已轉發

Dear @clement_molin, this document is an obvious fake... a basic table on an unmarked, undated white paper sheet… any kid can make it. It also does not use the codification used by the Russian army for losses categories. It would never be displayed like this in an official…

I am still amazed that very serious and competent analysts still believe and assess that Russia suffers 250k permanent casualties (50% KIA) per year. That accounts for: - >40% of the total deployed forces in 🇺🇦 - 90% of the combat troops deployed in 🇺🇦 - 5 times the manoeuvre…



Delwin | Military Theorist 已轉發

[Su-34/Russie] A l'instar du Su-35S, le contrat à long terme portant sur la construction de 92 Su-34 destinés aux VKS arrive à son terme cette année avec les dernières livraisons en date. La production se poursuit avec des Su-34 avant la transition vers le Su-34M.

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Delwin | Military Theorist 已轉發

Most analysts assess, contrary to DeepState, that Russian forces progressed at the same pace or even faster in September than in August (~400 km²+). Furthermore, gains of operational importance are steadily rising: Siversk/Lyman area, toward Huliaipole, #Serebrianka forest.…

Quelques éléments sur le léger ralentissement des avancées 🇷🇺 en septembre vs Juillet/Aout. Je ne crois pas à une baisse d’intensité des opérations, qui ne se voit pas dans les statistiques d’assauts qui sont stables. Il s’agit plutôt d’une phase de sièges des bastions de la…



Thought of the day: while the war in Ukraine is disrupting how warfare will be conducted in the future, it does not render past concepts obsolete. As Svechin reminded us in Strategy (1927), and I often quote: “For each war one must develop a special line of strategic behavior;…


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