DemilsonJr2's profile picture. Legender Trading

Demilson Batista Jr

@DemilsonJr2

Legender Trading

Coffee rallied almost $1.2/lb since Aug 6 — the exact date US tariffs on Brazil jumped to 50%. That entire move is a tariff premium. When/if tariffs ease back to 10% or 0%, the market will simply unwind the shock that started in August. Not a crop problem. Not a demand boom. Not…

DemilsonJr2's tweet image. Coffee rallied almost $1.2/lb since Aug 6 — the exact date US tariffs on Brazil jumped to 50%.
That entire move is a tariff premium.
When/if tariffs ease back to 10% or 0%, the market will simply unwind the shock that started in August.
Not a crop problem.
Not a demand boom.
Not…

Everyone’s posting videos of flooded coffee farms in Vietnam,but the Robusta market didn’t seem to get the memo. (solid line less noise) Prices just broke down from a triangle, momentum fading fast. Maybe the floods weren’t as catastrophic as the photos, or maybe the market…

DemilsonJr2's tweet image. Everyone’s posting videos of flooded coffee farms in Vietnam,but the Robusta market didn’t seem to get the memo. (solid line less noise)
Prices just broke down from a triangle, momentum fading fast.
Maybe the floods weren’t as catastrophic as the photos, or maybe the market…

“This isn’t your average pullback — this is where the options book fights back. Big sharks hedging. Call sellers above 420, put sellers below 380. Welcome to the premium jungle 🦈☕️” #KC #COFFEE

DemilsonJr2's tweet image. “This isn’t your average pullback — this is where the options book fights back.
Big sharks hedging.
Call sellers above 420, put sellers below 380.
Welcome to the premium jungle 🦈☕️” #KC #COFFEE

NY C keeps on climbing but physical prices not moving accordinly in Brazil. That´s typical lack of demand followed by dealers heavy loaded on CSOs (Put Sellers fight). Not because fundamentals changed, but because dealers are forced to buy at strike levels. Interesting to see how…

DemilsonJr2's tweet image. NY C keeps on climbing but physical prices not moving accordinly in Brazil. That´s typical lack of demand followed by dealers heavy loaded on CSOs (Put Sellers fight). Not because fundamentals changed, but because dealers are forced to buy at strike levels. Interesting to see how…

Some producers blame “the funds”… the monster mkt But take a closer look — the funds might be the ones keeping prices UP. Not weather nor Lower certs. Huge put OI buildup between 345¢–385¢ means someone’s defending gamma — not attacking. They need prices to stay high enough for…

DemilsonJr2's tweet image. Some producers blame “the funds”… the monster mkt
But take a closer look — the funds might be the ones keeping prices UP. Not weather nor Lower certs.
Huge put OI buildup between 345¢–385¢ means someone’s defending gamma — not attacking.
They need prices to stay high enough for…

Some say funds study rainfall and flowering. Others know they just study cash flow. 💵☕ Because funds don’t trade the farm — they trade the flow. Producers must keep an eye on their production cost...we know what higher prices can do with production in the long run! #Coffee


From 437 ¢ to 380 ¢ — and now parked at 390 ¢. Sideways means one thing: someone’s loading up. Question is… which side? ☕️ Weather priced, NY Certs priced - tariffs remain the issue. #kc #coffee

DemilsonJr2's tweet image. From 437 ¢ to 380 ¢ — and now parked at 390 ¢.
Sideways means one thing: someone’s loading up.
Question is… which side? ☕️ Weather priced, NY Certs priced - tariffs remain the issue. #kc #coffee

Backwardation’s losing its grip? Yep for today Funds are rolling, carry trades waking up, and the panic premium’s fading. Still inverted, but not insane anymore. ☕️ Tightness cooling, not vanished. #kc #coffee #brazil #commodity

DemilsonJr2's tweet image. Backwardation’s losing its grip? Yep for today

Funds are rolling, carry trades waking up, and the panic premium’s fading.
Still inverted, but not insane anymore.
☕️ Tightness cooling, not vanished. #kc #coffee #brazil #commodity

So, why did Coffee prices fall? It’s not because supply magically appeared. It’s because the “shortage panic” stopped getting worse. 🔻 What changed today? ✅ Cert stocks rose +2,970 bags (total 450k) ✅ No pending lots — flow is happening again 🌦️ Brazil got some rain — not…


**“Coffee politely tapped the bottom of its uptrend channel today. #kc #coffee #arabica Bulls say ‘just a healthy pullback’. Bears say ‘collapse is coming’. I say: it’s 2025, nobody knows anything — just respect the line and keep stops tight. Not bearish, not bullish… just…

DemilsonJr2's tweet image. **“Coffee politely tapped the bottom of its uptrend channel today. #kc #coffee #arabica
Bulls say ‘just a healthy pullback’.
Bears say ‘collapse is coming’.
I say: it’s 2025, nobody knows anything — just respect the line and keep stops tight.
Not bearish, not bullish… just…

Coffee just hit the top of its uptrend channel, looked at 420¢ and said: “Nice view. I’m out.” Price rejection + RSI losing momentum = classic “bulls tired, bears interested” moment. Still an uptrend… but below 400¢ this channel turns into a slide. #kc #coffee #brasil

DemilsonJr2's tweet image. Coffee just hit the top of its uptrend channel, looked at 420¢ and said:
“Nice view. I’m out.”
Price rejection + RSI losing momentum = classic “bulls tired, bears interested” moment.

Still an uptrend… but below 400¢ this channel turns into a slide. #kc #coffee #brasil…

Stocks are flying, oil is calm, dollar is sleepy… And coffee? Coffee wakes up and says: “Macro? Don’t care. I’m busy falling.” Coffee correction - yes!! Longs rocking, hey!! we´re still above 4...will Trump talk to Lula? US needs BRL coffee Rejected (again) at 420¢. If 400¢ goes…

DemilsonJr2's tweet image. Stocks are flying, oil is calm, dollar is sleepy…
And coffee?
Coffee wakes up and says:
“Macro? Don’t care. I’m busy falling.”
Coffee correction - yes!! Longs rocking, hey!! we´re still above 4...will Trump talk to Lula? US needs BRL coffee
Rejected (again) at 420¢.
If 400¢ goes…

If coffee had a surname, it would be Volatility. From the top of 437,95 ¢/lb 📉 NY Dec/25 (CFNZ25): 410.75¢/lb (-2.40%) When fundamentals are foggy and politics speak louder than supply and demand, price doesn't trend — it swings. #kc #coffee


Robusta is cheaper, traders noticed and...some say: blend it! #kc #coffee #robusta Moved up quite a bit today...would you taste the difference if 70/30 or 80/20?

DemilsonJr2's tweet image. Robusta is cheaper, traders noticed and...some say: blend it! #kc #coffee #robusta Moved up quite a bit today...would you taste the difference if 70/30 or 80/20?

Arabica–Robusta spread just blew past 200 cents/lb. When this spread gets extreme → it doesn’t stay there for long. Either Arabica cools… or Robusta wakes up. #coffee #arbitrage #KC #Robusta

DemilsonJr2's tweet image. Arabica–Robusta spread just blew past 200 cents/lb.

When this spread gets extreme → it doesn’t stay there for long.
Either Arabica cools… or Robusta wakes up.

#coffee #arbitrage #KC #Robusta

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