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I’d put the chances of this market believing the next HTF impulse when it finally comes at around 0%. As it should be.
Good luck to all this week and beyond. 2008 fractal everywhere. I recall a time not long ago when I and many on CT were certain of $BTC > 100K based on a fractal. I’ve tried to learn from my mistakes and base my long term positioning on much broader assessments.
Most wish they bought “at the bottom of the bear”. But those thoughts only come in hindsight, and usually to folks that were nowhere near the space when the bottom was being made.
9-year #Bitcoin Weekly OBV Channel Significant if it holds. Significant if it breaks.
#Bitcoin weekly OBV-channel risk map. 🔴 Channel Top = High downside risk 🟡 Channel EQ = Caution, uncertainty 🟢 Channel Bottom = High upside risk ⬇️ Break below EQ = Capitulation likely ⬆️ Break above EQ = Euphoria likely
In every complete grand super cycle we always have trifold Pandemic #RoaringTwenties and Depression: 1620 2nd Black Death 1637 Tulip 1640s General Crisis || 1918 Spanish Flu 1929 Financial Crisis 1930s Great Depression @CiovaccoCapital @DaveHcontrarian @NewLowObserver @hmeisler
1/ Market is efficient. Day trading is a coin flip. Swing 1yr avoid capital gain tax. Longer is better. LT passive bubble inefficiency ~ ST arbitrage opportunity. Dealers can handle +90yr long debt cycle >90% drawdown. Risk manage and diversify cash flow. This is #RoaringTwenties
We're in agreement 🤝 Similar view. Basic takeaway is $SPX expanded flat new ATH 1H23 hard crash next year bottom 1H24 lower than pre Covid high. Recession legitimatize massive QE. FED genius. Powell deserves a Nobel prize in economics 🤣 CC @Barkworth17
Are you still bullish? After retest inverse head and shoulders $SPX 3,900 target is 4,300. October retest higher low support 4,000 before 4,800 EOY. Market top 5,500 1H23 recession 2H23. Market makers play by the textbook. Human behavior is predictable 🤣
On shorter-term $BTC, still awaiting next weekly close above 10W EMA (currently 21.9K). Then reaction at 50W + 100W EMAs will be important.
In my opinion, one which is closer to ATHs and altcoin euphoria than many participants think. And when that hits, I will do my best to offer views that are as hated as these are now.
#Altcoin market cap $DXY #Bitcoin $ETH / $BTC $BTC.D Though structurally this 14-month $BTC correction resembles the last (2017-2018), it sits in a very different broader market position.
$USDT.D Not a very bullish chart imo. Lots of room to fall.
I believe #Bitcoin and #crypto are likely to run hard into 2023. After that, we'll have to see... 1/7
$DXY putting in an ending diagonal imo with triple bear div on the weekly. Similar to $BTC's ending diagonal in early 2021. Break through RSI trendline and rejected backtest will be confirmation and risk likely to soar. I know I wish I paid more attention to this in April '21.
No change. Will update as more weeks develop. Though the corrective structures are similar, different macro wave position and broader risk market landscape (DXY, equities, rates), still has me expecting an impulse to ATHs in 2023.
More landscape:
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