TechDev_52's profile picture. Entrepreneur | #Bitcoin and crypto analysis

TechDev

@TechDev_52

Entrepreneur | #Bitcoin and crypto analysis

The highly-levered do not get to ride the bucking bull. It's that simple.


Never been a 4 year Bitcoin cycle. Never been the halving. Always been the business cycle…that previously inflected every 4ish years right near the halving. How do you know? Because it’s also explained every other aspect of Bitcoin’s chart. It’s at a bottom, not a top.

TechDev_52's tweet image. Never been a 4 year Bitcoin cycle.

Never been the halving.

Always been the business cycle…that previously inflected every 4ish years right near the halving.

How do you know?

Because it’s also explained every other aspect of Bitcoin’s chart.

It’s at a bottom, not a top.

Oct 2020 - ETH tested top of 2 yr range. - Business cycle inflected - Global risk index turned positive Oct 2025 - ETH tested top of 2 yr range. - Business cycle inflected - Global risk index turned positive


No way most are ready for Bitcoin’s next move.


This is called the "Ramp Phase".

TechDev_52's tweet image. This is called the "Ramp Phase".

Altcoins: slower but bigger They didn’t believe it then, they don’t believe it now.

TechDev_52's tweet image. Altcoins: slower but bigger

They didn’t believe it then, they don’t believe it now.

Phases of the global business cycle… Dictate those of the Bitcoin cycle.

TechDev_52's tweet image. Phases of the global business cycle…

Dictate those of the Bitcoin cycle.

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The Global Risk Index is a ratio of 3 simple macro signals. No weights, no fitting parameters. 3 signals independent of Bitcoin, larger than Bitcoin, that explain Bitcoin’s cycles. Discussed in latest issue, covered in more detail next week: techdev52.com/p/techdev-news…


Bitcoin has never had its hockey stick inflection until this global risk index crossed positive, like it just did.

TechDev_52's tweet image. Bitcoin has never had its hockey stick inflection until this global risk index crossed positive, like it just did.

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