
TechDev
@TechDev_52
Entrepreneur | #Bitcoin and crypto analysis
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The highly-levered do not get to ride the bucking bull. It's that simple.
Never been a 4 year Bitcoin cycle. Never been the halving. Always been the business cycle…that previously inflected every 4ish years right near the halving. How do you know? Because it’s also explained every other aspect of Bitcoin’s chart. It’s at a bottom, not a top.

Oct 2020 - ETH tested top of 2 yr range. - Business cycle inflected - Global risk index turned positive Oct 2025 - ETH tested top of 2 yr range. - Business cycle inflected - Global risk index turned positive
The Global Risk Index: A Framework for Cycle Precision techdev52.substack.com/p/techdev-news…
Altcoins: slower but bigger They didn’t believe it then, they don’t believe it now.

Phases of the global business cycle… Dictate those of the Bitcoin cycle.

The Global Risk Index is a ratio of 3 simple macro signals. No weights, no fitting parameters. 3 signals independent of Bitcoin, larger than Bitcoin, that explain Bitcoin’s cycles. Discussed in latest issue, covered in more detail next week: techdev52.com/p/techdev-news…
Bitcoin has never had its hockey stick inflection until this global risk index crossed positive, like it just did.

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