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Primary idea on macro #Bitcoin wave count and correction degrees. Cycle-degree wave 3 is 3X longer than wave 1.
GM! Hosting my first ever spaces today to discuss $BTC and more. Set your reminders👊
I realize it seems ridiculous to compare anything to a period when $BTC.D was 99%. I realize many expect $BTC.D to surge in this "bear market". If you do, then invest accordingly.
Probably not a popular opinion, but $BTC dominance looks quite bearish to me on HTF. Each time it rejects off upper 3W BB and crosses basis it at least visits bottom BB. Given their tightness I could see a major leg down. Still think $ETH and #alts will surprise into 2023.
#Bitcoin 12 HR Coiling up, showing what we want to see: consolidation ABOVE 200SMA Once price gets above a FLATTENED OUT 200SMA, & we see a golden cross, historical odds are in our favor to much higher continued upside youtu.be/3gyfXyOIZ0o $BTC #crypto #cryptocurrency $eth
#BTC pushing past the 10W EMA at 24.2K. Close above and 20W is next HTF resistance at 28K. Expecting initial rejection there. Whether the 10W holds as support will determine how quickly the next macro impulse takes off imo.
#BTC 50+100W EMAs about to cross and now both within the 32-35K range I believe they need to be before price can close above Watching for: - RSI break of resistance - TSI cross - Close above 50+100W EMAs Likely in that order, to confirm the end of this now 16-month correction
In a vacuum, #Bitcoin 's chart makes the argument for a run into 2023 + sideways 2023-2024 correction + run into 2025. But even the potential of a 2023 secular equities top will have me watching from the sidelines in 2024 to see just what degree of correction we're in for.
#Bitcoin / $NDQ Macro Observations - Consistently 3X lengthened wave structure - Common interactions with major S/R trendlines - Same angular relationship
Here is my latest interview from this morning (Thursday 8/4) with Dale Pinkert of TradeGateHub. We covered a lot of ground including the Fed, the potential for a pullback,the melt-up, the bond market, oil and precious metals. hubs.ly/Q01jdtyt0
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TradeGATEHub LIVE Trading | David @davehcontrarian updates his...
14-month #Bitcoin corrections. Eyeing 28-29K as next major HTF resistance at 20W EMA. 50/100W EMA test likely to come after, following their cross. Closing above both should confirm correction end.
- #Altcoins bouncing from long-term TL + prior ATH + 0.272 - $DXY at long-term TL + local TL + 1.414 after parabolic move - Possible parabola breakdown after 5 touchpoints and 1.414 extension into 2 TLs Watching for further confirmation of $DXY breakdown and #altcoin impulse.
Crypto hopium thread: Most people who have a crypto investment mandate are not fully allocated to crypto as they moved to part cash. Hedge funds are underweight. Retail are underweight. Same with institutions and family offices. 1/ #BTC #ETH
I would love for the space to prove these concerns unwarranted, or for the equity market to have more in the tank. But from a R/R standpoint, my play is to fully exit into the top of this next major impulse, wait for the market to show its hand, and do my best to read it. 7/7
I cannot ignore the uncertainty that the equity market and possible end to its 40-year parabolic run adds to the mix. When #crypto has only existed in the last 1/4 of it. 6/7
And while looking at the #Bitcoin chart alone, I see a strong case for continuation of this cycle wave into 2025... 5/7
$DXY has likely topped for now, and continues to exhibit strong inverse correction with risk assets, especially #altcoins. 4/7
Again, I expect #crypto to run with equities until then, as it always has. And this is likely to be the steepest equities leg of the last 40 years. 3/7
On log price, the red $DJIA parabolic support is represented as a near straight line. Upper trendline forms a more recent channel, and is due to intersect the 3.618 at 45K on the Dow Jones by end of 2023. 2/7
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