Exponential View 🔮
@ExponentialView
Unlocking the near future • AI • hardware • energy • economy • geopolitics • climate change • business → newsletter 📧 podcast🎙️ community👐
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Not an AI researcher, but does feel like that the current RL training paradigm inherently implies a lot of wasted compute. Also, why the pay packages for top researchers are so high as they can save millions (maybe billions) of compute with more intelligent design & workflows as…
We have a chance to rebuild a better internet – one that’s faster, safer, and fairer. I discuss the future of the web and AI with @Cloudflare's co-founder & CEO Matthew Prince (@eastdakota), who's uniquely positioned to see what’s changing.
There are many thinkers whose writing has inspired me over the years. They fall into three clusters: - Essays that sharpen our intuition around exponential trends, - Essays that help us think in systems, - Essays that train us to recognize patterns across history.
Reversible computing. Interesting space to follow. @azeem wrote about this over a year ago exponentialview.co/p/reversible-c…
🧵🫧 1/ Is AI a boom or a bubble? I built a five-gauge dashboard to separate vibes from fundamentals. The full essay is free to read today.
For OpenAI to beat the Nasdaq... It would need a $1.5 trillion valuation by 2030. I think this is possible and I break down why here: youtube.com/watch?v=7XQvVt…
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My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?
I discuss the recent research by @erikbryn, @econ_b and @Ruyuchen here: youtube.com/watch?v=mhT0WC…
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YouTube
AI is eating into entry-level jobs, according to Stanford
AI and the future of media – with @TheAtlantic CEO, Nicholas Thompson youtube.com/watch?v=pKYQe5…
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AI and the future of media – with @TheAtlantic CEO, Nicholas Thompson
This conversation with @OpenAI CPO Kevin Weil (@kevinweil) was shot before GPT-5's release but somehow it's even more relevant now.
How can GPT-5 can be the most capable AI model yet still feel “modest”? Over the past week, I've been tracking the tensions in how people are reacting. They crystallise into five paradoxes: 1️⃣ The moving-goalposts paradox: As AI clears old benchmarks (like the Turing test), we…
Well said @azeem "Some of GPT‑5’s biggest gains are invisible. When it anticipates needs and makes decisions for you, you do not feel the friction it removes; you just experience the smoother path. But that invisibility makes it risky: the more the model guides you, the more…
"Instead of competing for human clicks, third-party services in the Agent Attention economy will vie for activation by autonomous agents. Success will depend on how often agents choose a service, how relevant its capabilities are to the task and how well it delivers"…
Encouraging to see that steady compounding means clean energy is on track to decarbonise the economy. BUT it’s too slow - we need 2-3x the speed! (Via @ExponentialView)
"The Exponential Age" by @azeem won the spot of best #technology book of all time! mostrecommendedbooks.com/lists/best-tec…
I spent three intense days in China, dashing between meetings, riding bullet trains, and watching silent EVs fill traffic lanes. What really stood out is how clean the air felt at 36 °C.
OpenAI is the most important technology company today. I spoke with CPO Kevin Weil (@kevinweil) and my takeaway is clear: AI will be in everything we touch. Kevin's insider view is invaluable for understanding this future.
Just dropped: OpenAI CPO @kevinweil joins @azeem to discuss: - Why not using AI will soon feel like refusing a smartphone - From 30M to 1B devs: How AI will unlock personalized software - Sir Jony Ive: How hardware will supercharge AI exponentialview.co/p/openais-cpo-… @ScribbleVC
"We're in for some pretty big shocks..." – @tylercowen joins me to discuss AI growth, job displacement, spirituality and human identity. This is a 20-year outlook. Enjoy
It's no secret that there's a workforce crisis in healthcare today. Will AI help? How and why? With @emollick and @azeem, we explore these questions on the latest episode of "The AI Revolution in Medicine, Revisited" @MSFTResearch microsoft.com/en-us/research…
GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke (@ashtom) confirmed in conversation with me what many suspected but few wanted to say out loud: we've already crossed the threshold where AI generates code faster than humans can meaningfully review it. The era of human oversight in software development…
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