Adam Nessel
@FunToHobby
Fantasy Football & Football Card Analysis | NFL Award Markets | Exploring where stats meet collecting @ FunToHobby | 🐻⬇️
Stafford vs Maye MVP comparison: Total EPA: Maye 2nd, Stafford 9th EPA/DB: Maye 6th, Stafford 10th Success Rate: Maye 8th, Stafford 10th** Yds/Game: Maye 284, Stafford 270 TDs: Maye 21, Stafford 25 **Adam’s tweet had Stafford 1st; numbers above per @SumerSports (min 100 plays)
Three months ago, they tried to tell us Matthew Stafford's back was dead. Since then he's: * 4th in passer rating * 4th in passing yards * 1st in TD passes (25) * 5th in INT rate (thrown 2) * 1st in success rate * 2nd in MVP market
Gonna toot my own horn while I can.
🧵A longshot that fits the MVP mold better than people realize: Matthew Stafford (+3700): 1.#Rams Expectations: • Circa Win Total: 9.5 (Over -130) • 2nd favorite in NFC West (+185) The market sees 10 wins, a few breaks from that key 12 win MVP threshold.
2024 Rookie QB Check-In: • Drake Maye cards top $100 • Bo Nix heating up in Denver • Jayden Daniels Time to Buy? • Caleb Williams steady despite shaky start Midseason breakdown: fantasy points, advanced metrics & card trends for all six QBs. tinyurl.com/ym6wpf72
I'm *sort of* sympathetic to the "Josh Allen got a lot better after Year 2 so it's possible that someone else will too" line of argument but at some point we've got to acknowledge the probability that this happens (re: Caleb Williams)
For anyone wondering how JT’s MVP pace stacks up: 2000 Faulk — 2,189 yds, 26 TDs 2006 LT — 2,323 yds, 31 TDs JT’s pace: 2,244 yds, 30 TDs 👀 #Colts
In his eight games this year, Jonathan Taylor is scoring 27.08 fantasy points per game. That is the 10th greatest running back fantasy season *of all time* Better than any Lev Bell, David Johnson, Arian Foster Jamaal Charles season, all but 2 LT seasons....insanity
Coming from a #Bears fan, this guy is being extremely slept on.
Jordan Love: * 1st in Total EPA / Game * 1st in EPA / Dropback * 1st in Win Probably Added / Dropback * #1 Seed in the NFC ... * 5th in MVP odds at 6% probability Explain
The real MVP race (outside Mahomes & Allen) Drake Maye (+500) Jordan Love (+2200) EPA/Play: Love 1st, Maye 2nd Yds/G (Pass+Rush): Love 272.4, Maye 284.5 QB Rating: Love 111.3, Maye 118.7 Div Odds: #Packers -130, #Patriots +120 Last non div MVP: 2012 Adrian Peterson
Jordan Love is playing the best football of his career and I won’t let it go unnoticed. Through 7 Games: 70.7% CMP / 256.8 YPG 13 TDS - 2 INTS / 111.3 RTG Top 3 in EPA/play and Success Rate 5-1-1 W/L (1st in NFC) That’s my franchise superstar QB.
Jordan Love is good at football. Mentioned him as the Best Buy in the MVP market & Card Market heading into this week. #Packers tinyurl.com/47nte7kj
Jordan Love since halftime has led two straight touchdown drives 10/10 141 YDS 1 TD Perfect.
It’s time to have a Caleb Williams conversation
Ben Johnson 19/1 for COY feels like the play with Lamar sitting. If he’s officially ruled out, that price probably drops under 3. Win total at 8.5 (-140 to the over) , if the #Bears hit 10 wins and make the playoffs (5 win jump) 🚀
Vegas seems to think Lamar Jackson is out as the point spread has gone from Ravens -7.5 to -3 in some books.
Feel like I’m taking crazy pills: Hampton (+500) should be the OROY frontrunner. #Chargers Last 2 gms: 147 YPG, 21 touches, 13.6% tgt share, 2 TDs. OL injuries = quicker throws + more RB usage. No comp (Haskins+Vidal: 14 snaps). 17 gm pace: 1615 yds, 60 rec, 9 TDs.
#Chargers RB Omarion Hampton had 128 rushing yards in Week 4, the most by a Bolts' rookie since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2001. ⚡️ He’s had 294 yards and 2 TDs in the last two weeks, flashing the speed, vision and toughness that made him a 1st-round pick. Jump on the bandwagon if…
Josh Jacobs’ receiving has spiked since Jayden Reed went down (19.1% tgt share W3-4). Post bye, #Packers OL help is coming for a bottom 5 run blocking unit. He’s at 22.5 touches/g (T 3rd w/ 90 total). While Puka is a strong OPOY fave, Jacobs at +6000 is an intriguing dart.
It took 1.5 quarters, but Justin Fields finally threw his 2nd pass attempt of the night. The #Jets might be allergic to the forward pass
Travis Etienne is at 394 rush yds (98.5/g). At this pace, he’ll pass last year’s total (558) by the end of Week 6. The #Jaguars RB is off to a monster start w/ the new coaching regime 🐆
Rushing yardage leaders through one month: 414 - Jonathan Taylor 401 - James Cook 394 - Travis Etienne 314 - Bijan Robinson 312 - Javonte Williams 303 - Kyren Williams 284 - Derrick Henry 282 - Ashton Jeanty
OPOY race after 4 weeks (pending MNF) = most fun #NFL award: 17 Gm Pace: • Puka (+300): 178 Rec | 2,359 Yds | 8.5 TDs • JT (+450): 2,240 Yds | 17 TDs • Bijan (+550): 2,482 Yds | 8.5 TDs • ARSB (+1600): 1,305 RecYds | 25.5 TDs • Cook (+1600): 2,089 Yds | 17 TDs Who you…
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