Manu Invests
@ManuInvests
Manu Invests - Fundamentally Sound Substack.
With 81% of companies reported, S&P 500 operating earnings are up 24% YoY, the 11th straight positive quarter and highest growth rate since Q4 2021. $SPX Video: youtube.com/watch?v=fDeykb…
Another earnings season, another reminder to never doubt corporate America. Here’s some eye-popping stats: - 90% of the S&P 500’s market cap has reported and analysts expect S&P 500 profits will now grow 14.6% year-over-year in Q3. - The estimate heading into earnings season…
This is 30+ days delinquent FRED CC delinquency graph - slightly different delinquency definition (30 v 90) but it helps put spikes in perspective. Your graph could insinuate that where 90d delinquencies typically resolved in the past we are seeing a leading indicator that they…
$HIMS This should not be unexpected and isn’t the doom and gloom it’s portrayed to be. It is important to note that this graph aligns perfectly with the launch and headlines of commercial glp1. They launched Q2 last year so was the driver of spike in web traffic starting in May…
$HIMS Early November data still shows website traffic and social interest getting worse.. we still see risk in this stock. x.com/tickerplus/sta…
‘Berkshire has less chance of a devastating disaster than any business I know. And, Berkshire has a more shareholder-conscious management and board than almost any company with which I am familiar (and I've seen a lot).’ ‘In aggregate, Berkshire's businesses have moderately…
This.
Multi-baggers come from EPS growth + multiple expansion which means you sometimes have to invest before it is consensus safe. The thesis might have as many question marks as periods but the broad strokes check out. You buy a little and aren't afraid to average up/or sell out with…
A key difference btwn the AI buildout and the Internet buildout leading up to the DotCom Bubble. During the Internet buildout, capex significantly outstripped cash flows. Today it’s reversed mainly bc the mega cap tech “hyperscalers” are also wildly profitable. Unclear if/how…
From the @FT: “US companies’ earnings are growing at the fastest pace in four years… Median earnings growth year-on-year across the Russell 3000 index — a benchmark for the entire US stock market — hit 11 per cent in the third quarter, up from 6 per cent in the previous three…
You track your steps. Your water intake. Your sleep. Your calories. But how is it all connected? What’s the whole picture? Something new is coming November 13th. Learn more at hims.com/events
$CROX continues to prioritize returning shareholder value through buybacks, purchasing more then 4% of shares outstanding in Q3. Over the past TTM, $CROX has purchased approx. 10% of shares outstanding. Very happy to see management continue and accelerate this strategy at these…
4/ The market still remembers the early-2000s boom-and-bust story. But the company that once sold rubber clogs is now a global lifestyle brand. And management is using free cash flow wisely, buying back shares fast.
Regarding $META $600b commitment: This isn’t an additional $600b of capex spend. It is hyperbolic and includes all costs and expenses. That’s why it includes “investment in infrastructure and jobs,” in the statement. CFO released a clarification after his White House meeting…
I remember when… $GOOG OpenAI didn’t so much pass the baton, more like Google took it back. Glad to have been a buyer throughout all of the negative sentiment.
$META has a net debt to EBITDA ratio of .15 if you include their recent debt issuance. It’s a net debt to EBITDA ratio of .42 if you include this off balance debt. People are spoiled by the bulletproof balance sheets of these companies. Comparing META to 2008 Enron is wild.
🦔Meta is hiding $30 billion in AI infrastructure debt off its balance sheet using special purpose vehicles, echoing the financial engineering that triggered Enron's collapse and the 2008 mortgage crisis. Morgan Stanley estimates tech firms will need $800 billion from private…
Knowing that just about none of my holdings have mega commitments from OpenAI helps me sleep well at night. Exception being $AMZN w a $38b multi-yr AWS commitment. However, AWS has an annual run rate of $108b and continues to emphasize they are supply constrained. 😴 $META…
This is actually a really bullish chart reflecting the uptick in new business applications. AI is making micro/small biz much more accessible and it’s becoming a new avenue of ad spend, in particularly for $META as it is often the primary ad space for a MSMBs, esp new ones.
Updating the stats with Q3 results in - accelerating separation from competition! In Q3, Lyft completed 249M trips, adding 32M trips YoY DoorDash completed 776M trips, adding 133M trips YoY @Uber completed 3,512M trips, adding 644M trips YoY Just our incremental YoY volumes…
With earnings results from some of our US competitors today, contextualizing the profitable growth at scale Uber is delivering: In Q2, Lyft completed 235M trips, adding 30M trips YoY Doordash completed 761M trips, adding 126M trips YoY Uber completed 3,268M trips, adding 503M…
Great response and clarity. Happy to see it.
*TRUMP AI CZAR DAVID SACKS SHUTS DOWN OPENAI CFO REQUEST FOR FEDERAL BACKSTOP "THERE WILL BE NO FEDRAL BAILOUT FOR AI. THE U.S. HAS AT LEAST 5 MAJOR FRONTIER MODEL COMPANIES. IF ONE FAILS, OTHERS WILL TAKE ITS PLACE." - DAVID SACKS
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