Mathematica Capital Partners
@MathematicaCP
Macro hedge fund. Fundamentals and flow driven with focus on long-term investing. Established by two traders with special love for mathematics.
From Sep 6 to Oct 14, the S&P 500 saw an 8.3% gain, ranking in the 96th percentile for this timeframe. Interestingly, data shows such strong gains have no significant predictive power for the coming 1w, 1m, 3m, 6m...
US savings as a percentage of disposable income fell to 3.3% in Q2 2024. The level was briefly lower in 2022 and in the period 2005-2007. Do people struggle or believe in the economy and labor market?
Older population means more mandatory outlays! (Medicaid and Medicare account for over 40% of mandatory outlays)
Not only the level of the debt has been rising, but the governments’ irresponsibility has also been growing over time. In the last 60 years the average share of government spending that was not covered by revenues was 14%. Since 2008, the same average grew to 26%.
ROTATION! After yesterday's CPI data, small-cap hugely outperformed big-cap (especially tech mega-cap). In the last 30 years, this was the 6th largest daily divergence between S&P 500 and Russel 2000 in absolute terms!
Accumulated savings are done, so is consumer spending. Prices are down MoM for the first time since May 2020.
One could argue that today’s global market justifies the dominance of the biggest companies, but the concentration risk is real. Index funds are popular because of low fees and diversification benefits. However, with these levels of concentration, only one is true.
Almost every time the unemployment rate starts rising from a local minimum, a recession follows shortly after.
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