The Model 🤖
@ModelLocks
#ModelLocks #handicapper #sportsbettor #sportsbettingadvisor #gambler #sportsbettingpicks #sportsinvesting #sportshandicapper #gambling #freesportspicks
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1/12 The Story: If you're a new follower, thanks for being part of the story! This is meant to be a ~5 min read for you to get to know the @ModelLocks acct. If you're an OG, you may know most of The Story, but this might help put things in context. ... And away we go!
#LaceOutModel🏈 results for wk 14 Tough luck in Week 14. Going to call it here boys and girls, the good guys are packing in. The market has caught up with us, plus we’ve gotten some bad luck. Will retool and be back. #NFL 3u, Colts ❌ 2⃣0⃣2⃣3⃣: -7.75u All-time: +7.34u
The efficiency of betting markets is complex. In many ways, they are extremely efficient. If you look at 10,000 soccer games with no-vig lines of -300/+300 almost exactly 25% of the dogs will win. On the other hand, there simple things that are just continually mispriced. For…
#LaceOutModel🏈 picks for week 14 We’ve had a rough go of it this year. But we try to get back into the saddle with a small bet this week. #NFL 3u, Colts +132 2⃣0⃣2⃣3⃣: -4.75u All-time: +10.34u
# No #LaceOutModel🏈 picks for week 13. Enjoy your life this weekend. God speed to your favorite team.
#LaceOutModel🏈 Week 12 results! The ball has not rolled the good guys’ way boys and girls. The Bills ripped our soul from our bodies. Sad. Stay positive. Stay strong. #NFL 3u, Rams✅ 3u, Bills❌ 3u, Texans❌ 1u, Steelers✅ 2⃣0⃣2⃣3⃣: -4.75u All-time: +10.34u
#UFCAustin Dariush v Tsarukyan Dariush competes early but I think Arman's physicality, Dariush kinda managing to cover for fragility/gassing with big moments and the pace differential eventually leads to Arman singular bonking or gas-pedalling down the stretch.
The chart below shows the results of playing every NFL home favorite vs. playing every road dog back to 1977 including this year to date. The combined record of the road dogs is 3672-3421-194. The ROI on road dogs is -1.1% versus -7.7% for home faves. If the lines were perfectly…
“Sweety, come tell our guests about that little parlay you placed.”
#LaceOutModel🏈 Week 12 picks are in! Hey boys and girls. Hope you’re enjoying your Turkey day. Big week for the model— the most betting volume so far this year! DM me for a revelation #NFL 3u, 👤 3u, 👤 3u, 👤 1u, 👤 2⃣0⃣2⃣3⃣: -2.69u All-time: +12.40u
#LaceOutModel🏈 Week 11 results The heartbreakers have piled up this year, as Cleveland got behind the steel curtain in the final seconds *kicks rocks* Waiting for the ship to turn. #NFL 3u, Steelers ❌ 2⃣0⃣2⃣3⃣: -2.69u All-time: +12.40u
I'll always prefer the Wink Martindale style to the Patrick Graham as someone who studies & as a fan. There aren't enough good QBs in the NFL to play passively. What I really appreciate about Wink is how often he's willing to CHANGE what he does based on the opponent. (cont)
#LaceOutModel🏈 Week 11 picks are in! Another mystery pick for the common man. Shoot me a DM for pricing if you’re getting involved this week! #NFL 3u, 👤 2⃣0⃣2⃣3⃣: +0.31u All-time: +15.40u
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