Napkin Math
@NapkinMath
“The good thing about business is that you don’t have to know any higher math.” - Charlie Munger
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That’s roughly a 13% yield, which is still less than what the market is charging $PGY for cost of equity in the low 20s. Buybacks.
$PGY: Very bullish signal from management Pagaya just disclosed that is has used cash from its balance sheet to repurchased $6.9M of its 8.875% 2030 convertible notes on the open market at a significant discount. After private credit market fears flared up in Sep 2025, these…
Maybe $NRG can finally be what it is supposed to be about instead of some shitcoin.
Trump has spoken. Data Centers need captive “inside the fence” power generation. The shortest term solution (with $GEV $SIEGY sold out on gas turbines) and nukes taking 6-10 years… are things like $BE $FSLR $TE. Our note on $TE is below. $VST $TLN $NRG $CEG and more are all…
Who is going to do all the credit reviews? $PGY
I was laying in bed last night thinking about the news regarding a 10% cap on credit card interest rates. And there's a huge winner. (but it’s not shorting $V or $MA like everyone’s screaming about) It's the BNPL trade. Why? If credit card issuers get forced into a 10% cap,…
Hello Sp🅰️cemob, this right here is why you need great bear write ups so that you get great bull write ups. Even though I am bullish, I’m always on offer to be the bear punching bag of any $ASTS debate. Know both sides inside and out.
Looking forward to @valuations_ attendance on an upcoming spaces with @thekookreport! As far as that blog post... Here are my thoughts. Mostly well written. They clearly have experience and knowledge. But respectfully, I think the post is overly focused on the social dynamics…
EM will be the largest driver for $ASTS in the future. It will seem obvious in retrospect, but until then it will be overlooked and scoffed. I stand by my prediction that ARPU will be higher in EM eventually.
I can do 10pm (eastern) on Sunday but I’ll be asleep by 11pm. I used to jump on Tara Bull’s $AMC spaces when she was a dedicated pumper, they were always fun. I read your write up and I appreciate the thoroughness but would pushback on several conclusions: - Wholesale model is…
I have $PGY marked as a tax loss harvest name. If it holds its current momentum, it will have a lot of strength going into my earnings & guidance rerate theory.
Just do napkin math.
MIT's "Street Fighting Mathematics" This course teaches the art of guessing results and solving problems without doing a proof or an exact calculation. Book: ocw.mit.edu/courses/18-098…
Manufactured anxiety.
Two things that happened today * Real consumer spending soared 3.5% in Q3 * Consumer confidence lowest since April We continue to be in a world where people say they feel one way, yet do the opposite.
One day $ASTS ARPU will be higher in India than the US.
A significant stride in India’s space sector… The successful LVM3-M6 launch, placing the heaviest satellite ever launched from Indian soil, the spacecraft of USA, BlueBird Block-2, into its intended orbit, marks a proud milestone in India’s space journey. It strengthens…
Eventually this will be extremely bullish for $AUR. Tough to perfectly time because they’re still heavily diluting, but it’s probably later this year when they don’t need the ATM as much for operational cash flow.
Tender rejections are ripping largely due to the compliance crackdown and the impact it is having on truck driver availability. At least 20% of the trucking industry has foreign-born drivers, according to official BLS stats. We estimate the unofficial number could be 2x as…
Practice doesn’t make perfect; perfect practice makes perfect.
Tom Brady explains his mental edge and why practice (not gameday) creates separation. "There was a part of me that was a psychopath out there. I was extremely hypercompetitive every day. I didn't feel like let's get to Sunday and now it's the time...Every day is the time to…
CEO of $DRI: "The consumer is still resilient. They're being cautious as we've said a few times. The weaker consumer sentiment doesn't necessarily translate into reduced spending during the quarter," said Chief Executive Rick Cardenas.
$JBL and $MU crushing their quarters and somehow the AI narrative is “it’s so over.”
Napkin math for $ASTS
United States Trendler
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