OCTAGON VALUE
@OctagonValue
UFC & MMA betting Early value & line movement Public track record on Blogabet: https://octagonvalue.blogabet.com/ Telegram: @OCTAGONVALUEMMA
January CLV recap Hokit +14.7% Nakamura +3.5% Ruffy +23.0% Volkanovski +16.3% Finney +12.8% Bukauskas +4.2%
Monthly Results — JANUARY ✅ Hokit vs Freeman ✅ Nakamura vs Szalay ✅ Ruffy vs Fiziev ❌ Bukauskas vs Kirilov ❌ Volkanovski vs Lopes ❌ Finney vs Malkoun Monthly Summary Picks sent: 6 Win rate: 50% Net units:+3.55 u Yield: 32.3%
UFC 325 – Hooker vs Saint Denis Tough matchup between two durable fighters. Hooker has very dangerous striking, but Saint Denis has more paths to win. KO power plus grappling upside. I expect the wrestling to be a key factor to neutralize Hooker’s offense.
UFC 325 – Malkoun vs Finney Two very strong wrestlers. Malkoun has also shown solid striking and overall good level, losing a very close decision to Allen. Finney comes in undefeated, imposing his wrestling and controlling all his opponents so far. Finney's victory has value.
UFC 325 – Fiziev vs Ruffy Very close fight between two highly technical strikers. Slight edge in pace and output for Ruffy, which could make the difference over three rounds. Fiziev opened as the favorite, and we capturated the value on Ruffy before the market adjusted price.
UFC 324 – Bukauskas vs Kirilov Close fight on paper, but I slightly favor Bukauskas. Since the loss to Khalil Rountree Jr., he’s been winning in a very solid way. Bukauskas moneyline is starting to show value in some books. We going to wait a few days to see what's happen.
Lewis vs Acosta — UFC 324. Acosta is on the rise and the cleaner striker. Lewis always has KO power, but Acosta survived Pavlovich, so I don’t expect him to get stopped here. I lean Acosta. Waiting to see KO prices Lewis by KO could offer value.
Alexander Hernandez vs Michael Johnson — UFC 324. I have Hernandez as the favorite in this matchup. More consistent pace, physicality and pressure should make the difference over three rounds. Solid favorite, not a flashy fight, but a clear stylistic edge in my view.
Nurmagomedov vs Figueiredo — UFC 324. Umar is a very clear favorite in my view, but I’m surprised by how low his win odds are. On the other side, Figueiredo is priced very generously. The only value is on Figueiredo, even if the probability of it landing is very low.
Nunes vs Harrison — UFC 324 Can the Lioness stop Kayla Harrison? Nunes has a clear edge in striking, but the real question is whether that’s enough to deal with Harrison’s strength and wrestling. I slightly favor the reigning champion, but the odds feel well priced. No value.
Ruffy vs Fiziev. Even with the event still a month away, I’ve found early value on Ruffy. Both fighters are refined, stylish strikers, and I expect this fight to play out mostly on the feet. I slightly favor Ruffy, while the market has Fiziev as the favorite.
Hokit vs Freeman. According to my analysis, Hokit is a very dangerous heavyweight. His cardio and constant pressure remind me a lot of Cain Velasquez in his prime. Freeman is the bigger heavyweight with real finishing power, but I expect Hokit’s pace and aggression to take over.
Silva vs Namajunas. My analysis has Silva as the favorite, but this fight is much closer than early odds suggest. Rose is experienced, with elite striking, and shouldn’t be priced this wide. Value could eventually show on her side once the market settles.
Pimblett vs Gaethje. My analysis still gives the edge to Paddy, but the fight is much closer than the market suggests. At current prices, Pimblett is overpriced. The only side showing value here is Gaethje.
Early UFC lines are often inefficient. The market usually corrects them later.
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