Patients Capital Management LLC
@PCM_bio
Long Biased Biotech & M&A | tweets not investment advice | #PCManiacs
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Gotta trust the one thing that matters, your gut $abvx
Post mortem: revs for Osgiveo have rebounded nicely and Gomekli off to solid start. Prob would have been a challenging name to own in 1H given the 1Q hiccup but also looks like $swtx timed their sale / going into blackout period V poorly. Good work by $MRK.DE $xbi $ibb
So maybe $swtx did get a good deal? Sales down 20% Q over Q? Thats a relief, curious to see proxy / projections vs what mgmt was communicating during early launch
If you believe what $AZN says about the peak sales opp for baxdrostat (which has been their consistent posture despite emergent data from lorundrostat) $mlys is still very, very cheap. Natural cross sell for BP with primary care / cardio sales force. This one is about as easy it…
Who would be the winning horse for $mlys? $bmy - need more cardio as they stare down Eliquis. Another CV oral option with Camzyos + potentially milvexian $mrk - natural fit but PCSK9 is peptide vs small molecule. Not sure if gating item or not (AZN LDL-C + Hypertension both…
This is GREAT news for FDA! Rick Pazdur is an extremely well respected and highly regarded leader in regulatory science, who has demonstrated a real commitment to patients, biomedical innovation, and, of course, science.
scoop: RICHARD PAZDUR set to be named FDA's top drug regulator He'd initially turned down job leading agency's CDER but reconsidered w @rachel_roubein washingtonpost.com/health/2025/11…
Two truths for those who might fade the likelihood of lumpy M&A before YE in the $xbi $ibb 1) 1146 days until Keytruda LOE $mrk 2) SF is terrible place to have a conference ( $JPM ). Center of universe should shift to $JEF in London
The longer $MRK waits to bolster growth profile / pave path to non-(SubQ)-Keytruda revenues, the more their hand will be forced to write a big check for a co like $insm $mrk won’t get credit for *string-of-pearls* BD + or SubQ life cycle mgmt if they don’t diversify top-line.…
Always a treat when the $xbi decouples from the 10 yr
x.com/collision/stat… Good to see someone in Pharma is figuring out how to play the PR game. Talking to patients, not at them. Further to that, those BP who don’t have obesity pipeline are missing bigger picture.. that medicine is going towards preventative vs reactive…
Companies with no late-stage obesity presence who still need it to avoid being left behind: $mrk $bmy $sny $nvs $gsk and $abbv / $jnj somewhat. More time to be cautious for the latter 2
Companies with no late-stage obesity presence who still need it to avoid being left behind: $mrk $bmy $sny $nvs $gsk and $abbv / $jnj somewhat. More time to be cautious for the latter 2
Imagine being a BP watching this WH press conference and not having a real shot at commercializing in obesity market. When has Washington ever spoken so highly about a class of medicines as a part of a solution to a major population health problem?
The longer $MRK waits to bolster growth profile / pave path to non-(SubQ)-Keytruda revenues, the more their hand will be forced to write a big check for a co like $insm $mrk won’t get credit for *string-of-pearls* BD + or SubQ life cycle mgmt if they don’t diversify top-line.…
$AMGN has done a remarkable job convincing investors that they can grow through denosumab, Nplate, Otezla, and Repatha LOEs, and even though that growth is fairly contingent upon maritide and rocatinlimab uptake. At same time, they are currently much more diversified relative to…
$pfe for $vktx would be cathartic for biotech
So if $nvo wins $mtsr , $pfe has no choice but to go for $vktx right? Can’t see $nvo doing same if $pfe wins
$slno needs a CEO who’s going to defend the fort / focus the convo on efficacy & progress / not sound lethargic on a conference call Soleno is a good story if it’s told well. Not convinced that’s the case at moment
Heat kitchen analogy applies here if you’re using X to promote your short thesis $slno
So if $nvo wins $mtsr , $pfe has no choice but to go for $vktx right? Can’t see $nvo doing same if $pfe wins
What do we think? Danu fails, $pfe acquires $vktx in short order for $12bn, and $pfe adds $50bn in market cap taking the stock to $35/sh (bc we all know this is BP game)? $AMGN acquires $GPCR because the SubQ to oral and back again is a real market? $MRK and $nvs finally fire…
Very nice $mdgl .. $287.3mm vs $245mm street est.. continues to blow early expectations out of water and validate the mash market. EBIT / CF positive in 2026 Solves a near-term math problem at certain pharma that still lack meaningful cardiometabolic presence $xbi $ibb
What do we see from $mdgl today? $265mm? Fortunately analysts seem to have set them for a solid beat $xbi $ibb
What do we see from $mdgl today? $265mm? Fortunately analysts seem to have set them for a solid beat $xbi $ibb
Wow $mdgl .. very nice Q.. the MASH market continues to be validated and Rezdiffra will be block-buster run-rate in Q3 Scarcity value of a high growth asset rises. Who’s going to step in on $mdgl and then $akro $etnb ??
The longer $MRK waits to bolster growth profile / pave path to non-(SubQ)-Keytruda revenues, the more their hand will be forced to write a big check for a co like $insm $mrk won’t get credit for *string-of-pearls* BD + or SubQ life cycle mgmt if they don’t diversify top-line.…
With macro uncertainty for large BioPharma settling out, FTC risk coming down, P/E valuations at long term lows, huge LoE's ahead... it's time for some Big-Big M&A once again. My take: we will see one or more >$50B biopharma acquisition within the Top 20 players in the next…
this reversal on uniqure is frankly worse than replimmune (and sarepta). like replimmune fda staff aligned with uniqure on a plan for approval, and qure hit the agreed upon bar. like sarepta, huntington patients and their doctors are crying out for this option, and have been…
Disappointing to see the $qure news. Hopefully the company / FDA agree on a path forward expediently. This feels like one where FDA should enable accelerated approval + continued review of RWE while other therapies are progressed in clinic
Re-sharing an investor letter from last year. Why a story like $qure is so important in biotech. And why a Pharma needs to own them $xbi $ibb
Further to this, why does $mrk not understand that Keytruda SubQ is not going to get full val credit? Reformulation businesses MAYBE get 50% rev / earnings multiple. More importantly tho, this somewhat violates the social contract / intent of Hatch Waxman. Medicare has paid…
Ditto + $insm still cheap. Stop making this so hard on yourselves $mrk
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