PredictionEdge
@PredictionEdge
The smarter way to follow elections. Tools to help you trade and win on the 2026 midterms
Polymarket called Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair before Trump’s post, too. It’s so true that people are looking at prediction markets before traditional news sources now
Everyone was watching Kalshi’s $100M Fed Chair market Trump’s pick had enormous trillion-dollar economic implications, and prediction markets proved they’re the fastest way to track real-time expectations amid all the volatility Prediction markets are mainstream
Prediction markets called this last night… Congratulations, Kevin Warsh!
JUST IN: Trump to announce Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair tomorrow with a 93% certainty according to Kalshi traders
JUST IN: Trump to announce Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair tomorrow with a 93% certainty according to Kalshi traders
BREAKING: Trump says he will announce new Fed Chair next week The prediction markets reacted INSTANTLY
JUST IN: Government Shutdown odds are at 69%, very close to where they were before the most recent NYT story covering a potential Trump-Schumer deal
BREAKING: GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN ODDS PLUMMET TO 44% ON @coinbase PREDICTION MARKETS AFTER REPORTED TRUMP-SCHUMER DEAL
Interesting take…
Richard Hanania gives his HOT TAKE on INSIDER TRADING in prediction markets Hanania: Critics scream “INSIDER TRADING” or you’re creating “incentives to ASSISSINATE someone,” but you can do that in the “STOCK MARKET” Do you agree with @RichardHanania?
BREAKING: GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN ODDS PLUMMET TO 44% ON @coinbase PREDICTION MARKETS AFTER REPORTED TRUMP-SCHUMER DEAL
The user interface on Coinbase’s prediction markets is slick. I love the feature where we can monitor how much volume there is in the last 24 hours
Casey Putsch rn
UPDATE: Vivek Ramaswamy has surpassed a 90% chance to be the GOP nominee for OH Governor
Richard Hanania gives out some good alpha here. He thinks that JD Vance is undervalued to be the 2028 GOP Presidential nominee
New podcast is out! @RichardHanania and @GerlacherC cover: - Why Hanania thinks J.D. Vance is a LOCK for '28 GOP Pres. Primary - Hanania's RFK Jr. HHS prediction gone WRONG - Hanania's hot takes on Nick Fuentes and White Nationalism youtube.com/watch?v=fMiXTk…
youtube.com
YouTube
Richard Hanania on Prediction Markets, White Nationalism & the...
Ahead of Jerome Powell’s Press Conference today, Kalshi traders are split over the number of Fed cuts in 2026: 0 cuts - 10% 1 cut - 14% 2 cuts - 23% 3 cuts - 22% 4 cuts - 16% 5 cuts - 9%
Our favorite news for prediction market account hit 2k followers! I wonder when we will hit 2k 👀
The Prediction News X Account has just surpassed 2,000 followers. It’s be great seeing the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and other big publications cover predictions market, BUT remember, Prediction News is your one-stop-shop for all the latest prediction market news
What’s your favorite prediction market app for trading politics and elections?
How many deportations happened in 2025 under President Trump? @Kalshi traders are still undecided because @ICEgov has not updated their website. I wonder if @DHSgov will update their website to get a final number here
Kalshi starting to beef up its presence in Washington DC. Bullish for its politics and elections markets 🚀
BREAKING: Kalshi opens DC Office and hires former Biden administration John Bivona as the Head of Federal Government Relations
Traders seem to be pretty undecided on how prominent Democratic Senators will vote for the next government shutdown. Republicans need 7 Democratic votes + 0 Republican defectors in order to get to the 60-filibuster vote threshold to pass a bill to avoid the government shutdown
With a government shutdown likely to occur (Polymarket traders give it a 77% chance of happening), prediction market traders are now forecasting how long it might last Kalshi traders estimate it will last ~12 days
Though PredictIt, the OG prediction market, gets a lot less attention than Kalshi and Polymarket, they have the cleanest UI for politics markets like the below 👇
United States Trends
- 1. Epstein N/A
- 2. #VERZUZ N/A
- 3. Mike Will N/A
- 4. #DragRace N/A
- 5. Don Lemon N/A
- 6. Pusha N/A
- 7. Hit Boy N/A
- 8. Jay Z N/A
- 9. #OPLive N/A
- 10. #SmackDown N/A
- 11. Hanoi Jane N/A
- 12. Bill Gates N/A
- 13. Jeremy Fears N/A
- 14. Michigan State N/A
- 15. Catherine O'Hara N/A
- 16. Izzo N/A
- 17. Michael Watts N/A
- 18. Helicoide N/A
- 19. #loveduringlockup N/A
- 20. Mara N/A
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