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Prof. Brian A. Marks UNewHaven

@Prof_BAMarks

Pump prices experiencing the same; with TX coming back on-line, pressure from exogenous weather shock may ease, but prices may still feel near term upward pressure.

TX sneezed & caught a cold with congestion last week, it added upward pressure to WTI oil prices (NYMEX ~$60/bbl) already exhibiting increased price pressure since Nov (~$35) from geopolitics & demand optimism expected from COVID-19 vaccine rollout.



TX sneezed & caught a cold with congestion last week, it added upward pressure to WTI oil prices (NYMEX ~$60/bbl) already exhibiting increased price pressure since Nov (~$35) from geopolitics & demand optimism expected from COVID-19 vaccine rollout.


Latest corporate announcements of layoffs and continued delay federal relief package and continued uncertainty associated with COVID-19 and, in general, does not bode well for October.

Yet again BLS report mixed: latest Unemployment Rate = 7.9%* (directionally a positive); However, continued under-reporting with classification error up to .4%. BLS reports permanent job losses continue to increase to ~3.8m, another monthly increase. #unemployed



Yet again BLS report mixed: latest Unemployment Rate = 7.9%* (directionally a positive); However, continued under-reporting with classification error up to .4%. BLS reports permanent job losses continue to increase to ~3.8m, another monthly increase. #unemployed


Hidden in plain view, IRS Notice 2020-32. Small business beware as you file for loan forgiveness, if IRS fails to retract or Congress fails to fix. The clock is ticking. #AskReuters #SmallBiz #CARESAct


Here we go again! Latest CT BLS Unemployment Rate estimate = 9.8%*; Office of Research notes estimate: 16 - 17%. Mixed messages. #unemployed. ## remain daunting - estimate shows improvement, however.


Policy makers need to be cautious about reading too much into the latest 11.1%* BLS unemployment release. July 31 could become a perfect storm with the end of #CARESAct relief and continuation, resurgence, public health crisis.

State actions for re-engagement paused in some instances others could face re-institution of stay-a-home thus, impacting re-engagement of return-to-work and return-to-play. Celebrate the direction, but bumps potentially ahead.



State actions for re-engagement paused in some instances others could face re-institution of stay-a-home thus, impacting re-engagement of return-to-work and return-to-play. Celebrate the direction, but bumps potentially ahead.

Latest BLS June #unemployed 11.1%*, but remains understated (although directional positive news), thus, the asterisk. Misclass remains, but purportedly error reduced to approx. 1%. Rate remains daunting, especially given apparent resurgence in spread.



Latest BLS June #unemployed 11.1%*, but remains understated (although directional positive news), thus, the asterisk. Misclass remains, but purportedly error reduced to approx. 1%. Rate remains daunting, especially given apparent resurgence in spread.


Take the time to read the opinions.

Rmember: #SupremeCourt rulings are not just about outcomes. The opinion and words matter!



Rmember: #SupremeCourt rulings are not just about outcomes. The opinion and words matter!


Official May BLS CT Unemployment Rate issued 9.4%*, an increase. Office of Research estimates ~19%, an increase from its Apr. ~17% rate; official rate understated in Apr and May because of data collection and misclassification issues. #CT #unemployed


My revision: Apr 14.7%*, * = ~5% bls.gov/news.release/a…, thus, Apr = 19.7%; May 13.3%*, * = ~3% bls.gov/news.release/e…, thus, May = 16.7%. See, Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact note

What should MLB and BLS have in common? The Asterisk. given current BLS policy, "*" will have to do for "official" #unemployed Apr 14.7%*; & May 13.3%*. * = ~3% under-reporting by BLS. DOC updates, revises, GDP reporting. Time to revisit BLS policy?



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