Psychic Sharp
@PsychicSharp
NBA/CFB/MLB Capper... I dabble in other sports as well
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Small play on Giants here at +525 midway through the 4th. I think they get to Kelly here shortly. Bottom of the lineup coming up against Mad Bum
Player prop for your afternoon viewing pleasure: Ohtani total bases -122 vs Upton total bases. Cease has bad splits through first 40 IP.
The Yanks are 6-1 to the Over in their last 7 games & 5-1 to the Over in Paxton's last 6 starts. NYY have gone a staggering 24-8-2 O/U on the road this season & the White Sox have cashed on the Over in 4 of their previous 5 gms. MLB Daily Line Drive: bit.ly/2wY8vmc
Also watching the Marlins/Pirates game - would love to fade Archer and his 7th percentile xwOBA if the value is right. Expect the line to keep moving his way.
On the watchlist: Angels after the top of the first - like the matchup but expect better value after Rays opener takes a seat.
Last play for now: Astros -220 vs Jays - I’ve played the Astros all series. You can’t throw a replacement level pitcher out against the ‘Stros and expect good things to happen, even with their injuries. Astros should be about -300
White Sox +200 vs Yanks - far too much value here. Yanks are overvalued given the lineup they’ve been employing and Paxton walk rate spike is concerning.
Next play: Tigers +145 vs Indians - pitching edge to Detroit, believe it or not. Bauer’s K’s are masking his elevated walk rate and some good fortune on balls in play. Fastball is getting smacked and curve has taken a step back.
2nd play of the day: Cardinals -122 vs Mets - Vargas numbers aren’t as good as they look. Walking too many guys and giving up too much hard contact.
First play of the day: Orioles +142 - Means is pitching well and his contact numbers are strong. Red Sox don’t hit lefties well.
Mets/Cardinals o9 (2u at -101) - Wind blowing out at 14 MPH and liked the value on the over in a vacuum (no pun intended). Wacha’s hard contact numbers are brutal.
Tigers +225: not a Bieber believer - K numbers have been good but when the ball is in-play he's smacked around. This leads to him being way too erratic. 4 games with multiple home runs allowed this year. 2 of last 3 games have been horrible. Bad home/road splits.
Mets -132: Pitching edge here is comical for this to basically be a coin-flip plus homefield. Syndergaard's statcast numbers are elite this year and Wacha might be even worse than his numbers suggest.
4th play: Marlins -120 vs Pirates - Pablo Lopez has been a bright spot for Miami, who isn’t as bad as people think
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