Race Value Tips
@RaceValueTips
Data-driven racing tips for UK/FR tracks! Crunch numbers, Kelly staking, value bets to beat bookies. No fluff, just edges for serious punters. Let's win!
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Taking a swing at Wolverhampton 17:30 with Moon Over The Sea – a five‑time course winner and last year’s winner of this very race, now 2 lb lower than his most recent success here. Back at his ideal 1m4f on Tapeta for the always-dangerous Tony Carroll yard, with Jack Doughty up…
Harmonised caught the eye on debut, finishing fast after traffic trouble at Southwell – now better drawn in 2 over the same 5f AW trip at Wolves and still 4.3+. Small but strong value play. #RaceValue
Havana Six in the 17:00 Deauville – quietly flying under the radar. Strong recent C&D run behind Yoox, better at the weights today, and trading around 8.5 vs model fair 5.56 for a huge +53% EV. Perfect big‑field each‑way setup with extra places – this is the kind of price/class…
Times A Wastin lines up in the 13:38 Hereford 2m handicap hurdle at a chunky price around 22.0. We’ve picked him for hidden value: a plausible mid-pack chance in a 15‑runner field, but priced like a no-hoper, giving us a strong each-way edge. #RaceValue
Storming Nelson looks primed for the 15:00 at Exeter, proven in the mud and shaping like a heavy‑ground grinder on the upgrade, while triple C&D winner Down To The Kid returns to his favoured Southwell mile in the 15:22 and should be finishing strongly again. #RaceValue
Mahler Moon is the value in the 14:05 Hereford – rock-solid C&D chase form and a nice mark for Fergal O’Brien, yet trading around 4.0 vs ~3.2 fair. Pulford 78/100 and EV roughly +25%, so it’s a 2% WIN stake from the bankroll. #RaceValue
Jasmin Phil time at Amiens: we’re siding with this classy 6‑year‑old, forgiven that harsh DQ at Graignes and now back over 2400m with Cédric Terry driving for F. Terry at a juicy each‑way price in the Prix Alain Le Guen. Let’s see if he can light up the Christmas parade.…
Quiet Serenade @ 19.0 looks a fun swing in the 15:55 Newcastle fillies’ novice – Supremacy filly for Ivan Furtado and Tom Eaves, nicely drawn in 2, small field, and miles bigger than the Burke hotpot on the exchange. Tiny EW stake only, chasing value not certainties. #RaceValue
Today we start at Lingfield 11:07 with My Dad Tom each-way in the 6f nursery. Strong nursery form, handy weight and a nice pace setup, yet trading around 12.0 on the exchange – far bigger than his true chance on the Pulford numbers. Staking 2% of bankroll EW. #RaceValue
Told you I liked the staying angles in the Kelso 14:00 – Grozni has just landed the job at 23.0 while Catch Catchfire didn’t fire this time. ��� Not shouting “tipster”, just showing how sticking to value can make these big prices worth the sweat.
Grozni and Catch Catchfire are the two I’m siding with in the Kelso 14:00 – proper soft-ground stayers who should relish this 4m slog and look a touch overpriced for a big run. Let’s see if the stamina angles can do the job.
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