zephyr
@ShadowyZephyr
"cat-adjacent" - @thewreathwright | coastal elitist🌐🧦| outgroup heterogeneity advocate | cs student | any/all
It happens every election that someone does this tweet thinking all the bankers live in the Financial District. Twitter discourse version of thinking teachers live at your school
Polymarket NYC page says Mamdani is only expected to win by 2% because its model erroneously assumes that the vote totals for the three main candidates will add up to 100%. There is a separate market on margin of victory forecasting 10-20! Embarrassing mistake from their devs.
Absolutely, the Fascists told me today that the sky is blue so I insisted it was green to avoid agreeing with them.
In the biggest scandal since @simon_bazelon did not use log-transformed data, I just discovered @ZohranKMamdani's free bus pilot did not appropriately compare the decrease in assaults to the control group.
Found the study and the methodology is Very Bad! They forgot to difference the differences! mta.info/document/17746…
It’s almost impressive how much discourse is people saying others are pretending not to understand things, when in fact they actually do not understand things.
It's almost impressive how much MAGA discourse is just them pretending not to understand things, thus making discourse impossible.
Ok maybe Europe has fallen…
We cannot afford to let China win.
In one of my Philosophy of Science classes, I wrote a 10-page paper on this very topic. Supply and demand analysis meets all the criteria of a scientific theory: 1) Falsifiable 2) Empirically supported 3) Internally and externally consistent 4) And most importantly, predictive
Unfortunately people who think chemtrails are real don’t just stop at chemtrails
This is stupid, but there’s a core of truth in the idea, a lot of lesbians are temperamentally bisexual but don’t date men because of a bad experience with a man
sexuality is fluid and lesbians need to accept that they might like some men from time to time
The White House ballroom is fine Eating rice with your hand is fine Trump and Mamdani have generally bad policy ideas I wish people cared about stuff that mattered
Today marks exactly one month since I started actively trading on Kalshi. In that period, I was able to 10x, growing my portfolio from $1,000 to $10,000. Here are my biggest wins, losses, and lessons from the journey so far.
Manifold UI, Kalshi regulation, Polymarket model Who will make this
both polymarket and kalshi are going to lose to a third thing that just makes a better UI
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