TheDFSQuant's profile picture. Measuring DFS a data point at a time.

DFS Quant

@TheDFSQuant

Measuring DFS a data point at a time.

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Early Season 2025-26 NBA Draftkings MME Top 10 power rankings Contest data from 150 max-entry 50k+ prizepools Ranked by top 1% finish rate. Minimum 1000 entries. Team @Stokastic_Com holding it down. 🔥🔥🔥

TheDFSQuant's tweet image. Early Season 2025-26 NBA Draftkings MME Top 10 power rankings

Contest data from 150 max-entry 50k+ prizepools

Ranked by top 1% finish rate.

Minimum 1000 entries.

Team @Stokastic_Com holding it down. 🔥🔥🔥

NBA DFS distribution shape calibration for the 2025-2026 season. Noisy still, but it passes the squint test. This test confirms players are hitting their outcomes at the expected rates. With larger sample size, the bars should converge horizontally along the dashed line.

TheDFSQuant's tweet image. NBA DFS distribution shape calibration for the 2025-2026 season.  Noisy still, but it passes the squint test.  

This test confirms players are hitting their outcomes at the expected rates.  With larger sample size, the bars should converge horizontally along the dashed line.

Can the Department of Government Efficiency please take over Fanduel Support and technical operations? @elonmusk


Tout sites competing directly against their own customers is a conflict of interest that is never discussed.


How I imagine mok / bk / youda et al in the $10k winner take all contests. reddit.com/r/funny/s/I3ei…


What KPIs do you use to measure your DFS performance? Our business is unique in that the bottom line (profit) is largely variable and out of our control in the short and medium term.


Not too bad Mr. Embiid. Most DKP in a game:

TheDFSQuant's tweet image. Not too bad Mr. Embiid.  Most DKP in a game:

Fanduel devs just be like, "nah we ain't fixin' that."

TheDFSQuant's tweet image. Fanduel devs just be like, "nah we ain't fixin' that."

Ok that is impressive.

TheDFSQuant's tweet image. Ok that is impressive.

I want to check something. What is your preferred projection site for NBA DFS? Please comment if you use multiple of these sites regularly, or if you use something else entirely.


I hereby retract this tweet.

TheDFSQuant's tweet image. I hereby retract this tweet.

I want to see the residuals on the subset of NBA players who "will have their minutes monitored". Do projection sites over-penalize?



I want to see the residuals on the subset of NBA players who "will have their minutes monitored". Do projection sites over-penalize?


I see posts here every day about "fish" getting rewarded, and never punished. It is a good idea to regularly ask yourself, "Am I the fish?" Ego is the number 1 threat to ruin in the gambling life.


So long as contest sizes are not reduced, the exclusion of late games from the NBA main slates should be celebrated. Eliminating all correlation between main and night slate wagers is a good reduction in daily variance without removing much, if any, theoretical return.


$1,000,000 profit in 2024 = +$2,732 per day. $2,732 per day is: $54,640 daily average bet size at 5% roi $27,320 daily average bet size at 10% roi $18,213 daily average bet size at 15% roi Are any of these volume + ROI combos possible? How many can achieve this?


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