Amo D. Fischer
@amoanalysis
Capital. Capitol. Consequences Speciality in HC/Tech/Fin Thematic Investing Substack: https://amoanalysis.substack.com/
All – my X mainly focuses on business, investing, economy, with a touch of politics (if it's adjacent), and some humor mixed in (apologies in advance) My Substack strictly covers business/investing, where I post ideas, lessons, or deep dives every Sunday!
Not saying other labs don’t have something similar, but this is why Claude gets negative feedback Relative to other tools I always found Claude the most restrictive, which may become its biggest strength or weakness in the future
This has historically been a good gauge of sentiment IMO, these have never been long lasting and I can see sentiment quickly shifting off this
US equity market stress is rising beneath the surface: The put-call skew in the Nasdaq 100 ETF, $QQQ, is up to 0.39, the highest since the April 2025 market sell-off. The skew measures how much more investors are paying for downside protection using out-of-the-money puts versus…
I actually don't think theres historical comparisons for OAI/Anthropic/Google. I used to be very bearish on OAI (and still in some ways am), but Codex is extremely impressive, IMO the best AI tool on the market But I don't think OAI has the right strategy to attack…
One of my takes about current market price action is that it will never be about fundamentals again. You can't rationally explain why some companies are worth an extra $10 bn or lose $10 bn in market cap all of the sudden Volatility and speculation are the name of the game in…
Very very interesting, I honestly don't have a confident prediction of where this might lead us given the precedent this sets However, I'd argue this is positive for global stability, even if it further separates us from traditional U.S. allies
BREAKING: Russia is considering moving back to the US Dollar as part of a wide-ranging economic partnership with President Trump, per Bloomberg. The partnership would include: 1. US and Russia working together on fossil fuels 2. Joint investments in natural gas 3. Offshore…
Wrote this on my Substack, but this goes off my prior tweet of what is actually going on in the AI world
I highly suggest people to read this and actually understand what the risks/benefits are of the current stage of AI I will be writing a short-post about it today, but there's so much misinformation on this app that if you don't do the research yourself, you will be psyoped into…
When we released Claude Opus 4.5, we knew future models would be close to our AI Safety Level 4 threshold for autonomous AI R&D. We therefore committed to writing sabotage risk reports for future frontier models. Today we’re delivering on that commitment for Claude Opus 4.6.
Different type of post from the Anthropic one – find this a bit more biased Firstly the "recursive improvement loop" is the idea that AI will get to a point where it can improve itself without human input. Essentially, improvement goes from linear to exponential This is a…
Last day at xAI. xAI's mission is push humanity up the Kardashev tech tree. Grateful to have helped cofound at the start. And enormous thanks to @elonmusk for bringing us together on this incredible journey. So proud of what the xAI team has done and will continue to stay close…
If you just read X – you'd think this is true If you actually did the research, you'd realize this is a cut clip and Trump was referring to Powell
Find this important so want to comment my thoughts. Theres either two lines-of-thought for reading something like this 1) He just doesn't mesh with Anthropic's culture. In a company you will always have people who just don't agree with what the company's doing, that doesn't…
Today is my last day at Anthropic. I resigned. Here is the letter I shared with my colleagues, explaining my decision.
Portfolio update – I'm 100% out of equities. Not because of doomer reasons (or any of the reasons you read on this app), I just find there is more compelling opportunities in other assets/strategies
I'll be honest, I used to think this, but actions speak louder than words. If CEOs were so confident, why aren't they hiring? (don't tell me its "AI" because thats CEO rhetoric) I feel that M&A and capital raising will be concentrated in a select few companies, at massive…
This is semantics – not saying U.S. debt is as safe as it once was, but this is clearly pushing a narrative
BREAKING: China has instructed banks to begin selling and limit purchases of US government bonds amid concerns that "US debt may expose banks to sharp swings."
Not at all surprised – adds conviction to my thesis I just posted The magnitude of the pullback today IMO will indicate whether its speculation or smart-money buying the dip
Retail investor activity in the US options market is through the roof: Retail investors' average daily options volume in precious metals has been 6.6 TIMES larger YTD in 2026 than the entire 2023. Retail options activity in gold and silver has exceeded every other year since…
Not a high conviction prediction, but a prediction I want to put out there U.S. equity futures are up right now alongside the moves in the post I am quoting We saw this a couple of days ago with silver/gold, big sell-off, pullback, then another sell-off If the theory is that…
This day has the potential to be a turnaround day. $VIX is down while markets are down ✅ Bitcoin appears to have stopped falling ✅ Software seems to have found a bottom ✅ Markets recover from overnight crash ✅ Let's see
The timing of this tweet was not a coincidence
GPT-5.3-Codex is here! *Best coding performance (57% SWE-Bench Pro, 76% TerminalBench 2.0, 64% OSWorld). *Mid-task steerability and live updates during tasks. *Faster! Less than half the tokens of 5.2-Codex for same tasks, and >25% faster per token! *Good computer use.
Want to comment on these job numbers. People need to understand that the economy is very weak right now Hiring isn't low because CEOs are "integrating AI" – it's because the economy is weak. No CEO is saying this because they can give the AI cop out answer, which sounds a lot…
On GOOG's earnings – as expected, it was very good. Stock is down, theres many narratives as to why but the reality is that most expected earnings to be good GOOG is up ~70% past 6M because the market believes Gemini will win the AI race. New Gemini releases are the actual…
Is this not proof it's all speculation? "GME" and "nothing about fundamentals" is written in this tweet!
If these years of financial markets madness fed by endless money printing taught me anything, now that the names are starting to surface and it becomes undeniable there is a restricted group holding a biblical amount of paper silver shorts, watch out for big guns to organise…
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