On Jan 29, Germany's CDU/CSU broke a longstanding taboo #Brandmauer by accepting votes from the far-right AfD. How did citizens respond? A preliminary analysis of an ongoing survey suggests that the conservatives might have actually benefited from their move! 1/5
The change in voting propensities stands in contrast to heavy scrutiny of the CDU/CSU and widespread protests following the vote. However, the result holds across various specifications and for similar outcomes, and appears to go hand-in-hand with losses for the AfD. 2/5
We are still not entirely sure what is going on here and will dig deeper into this (unexpected) result. Any thoughts and suggestions are very welcome! 3/5
The mid/long-term consequences of the taboo-breaking are highly uncertain: The election outcome in 2 weeks will depend on how parties can use the incident in their favor. Furthermore, the taboo-breaking might have been a test case for future collaborations with the far right. 4/5
More on what happened two weeks ago in the Germany parliament can be read here 5/5 politico.eu/article/german…
To be clear the dots just represent binned averages (~3h), we have over 1,000 respondents within 24h of the vote. This is the estimate of the effect. As mentioned, this holds for related outcomes, suggesting a consistent pattern.
Thanks for sharing! Could you explain a little more about the data and the graph. How many respondents per point estimate? What does vote propensity mean on a scale of 1-10?
The vertical line shows the time at which the vote took place, and we have over 1000 respondents within 24h of the vote (before+after). The dots merely show binned averages (~3h).
Interessant! Gibt es hier einen klar definierten Treatment-Zeitpunkt oder eher einen Zeitraum (Ankündigung des Vorgehens bis Abstimmung im BT)? Mich wundert der negative Trend kurz vor dem hier gewählten Threshold. Wie stark treibt der die Ergebnisse?
Das müssen wir uns noch genauer ansehen. Allerdings scheint die Abstimmung im Plenum entscheidend. Sie löste das große Medienecho aus und so wurde auch die breite Öffentlichkeit erreicht.
Those lines look overfitted though? The jump essentially relies a couple of low points right before the cutoff? I would suggest fitting less flexible curves.
The results actually holds with different polynomials, and we have way more observations than dots shown in the graph x.com/beckerbastian/…
To be clear the dots just represent binned averages (~3h), we have over 1,000 respondents within 24h of the vote. This is the estimate of the effect. As mentioned, this holds for related outcomes, suggesting a consistent pattern.
To be clear the dots just represent binned averages (~3h), we have over 1,000 respondents within 24h of the vote. This is the estimate of the effect. As mentioned, this holds for related outcomes, suggesting a consistent pattern.
gibts da genauere zahlen ob das real ist? ist ja offenbar weniger als die amplitude 1./3./4. februar, also rein optisch sieht das nach 0 effekt aus
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