datatog's profile picture. cEDH and Data Science

Datatog

@datatog

cEDH and Data Science

Single-card choices with the highest statistical significance for the most popular cEDH decks: TnK: exclusion of Delney, Streetwise Lookout Kinnan: exclusion of Worldly Tutor Rog/Thras: inclusion of Gilded Drake TnT: inclusion of Flare of Denial

datatog's tweet image. Single-card choices with the highest statistical significance for the most popular cEDH decks:
TnK: exclusion of Delney, Streetwise Lookout
Kinnan: exclusion of Worldly Tutor
Rog/Thras: inclusion of Gilded Drake
TnT: inclusion of Flare of Denial
datatog's tweet image. Single-card choices with the highest statistical significance for the most popular cEDH decks:
TnK: exclusion of Delney, Streetwise Lookout
Kinnan: exclusion of Worldly Tutor
Rog/Thras: inclusion of Gilded Drake
TnT: inclusion of Flare of Denial
datatog's tweet image. Single-card choices with the highest statistical significance for the most popular cEDH decks:
TnK: exclusion of Delney, Streetwise Lookout
Kinnan: exclusion of Worldly Tutor
Rog/Thras: inclusion of Gilded Drake
TnT: inclusion of Flare of Denial
datatog's tweet image. Single-card choices with the highest statistical significance for the most popular cEDH decks:
TnK: exclusion of Delney, Streetwise Lookout
Kinnan: exclusion of Worldly Tutor
Rog/Thras: inclusion of Gilded Drake
TnT: inclusion of Flare of Denial

Here are the currently most statistically significant single-card choices for the most popular cEDH decks: TnK: exclusion of The One Ring Kinnan: inclusion of Drift of Phantasms Rog/Thras: inclusion of Flesh Duplicate TnT: inclusion of Oboro Breezecaller

datatog's tweet image. Here are the currently most statistically significant single-card choices for the most popular cEDH decks:
TnK: exclusion of The One Ring
Kinnan: inclusion of Drift of Phantasms
Rog/Thras: inclusion of Flesh Duplicate
TnT: inclusion of Oboro Breezecaller
datatog's tweet image. Here are the currently most statistically significant single-card choices for the most popular cEDH decks:
TnK: exclusion of The One Ring
Kinnan: inclusion of Drift of Phantasms
Rog/Thras: inclusion of Flesh Duplicate
TnT: inclusion of Oboro Breezecaller
datatog's tweet image. Here are the currently most statistically significant single-card choices for the most popular cEDH decks:
TnK: exclusion of The One Ring
Kinnan: inclusion of Drift of Phantasms
Rog/Thras: inclusion of Flesh Duplicate
TnT: inclusion of Oboro Breezecaller
datatog's tweet image. Here are the currently most statistically significant single-card choices for the most popular cEDH decks:
TnK: exclusion of The One Ring
Kinnan: inclusion of Drift of Phantasms
Rog/Thras: inclusion of Flesh Duplicate
TnT: inclusion of Oboro Breezecaller


Recently successful spice 🌶️ Matias Caicedo O. went 2-3-1 on Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh // Silas Renn, Seeker Adept @ 'Road to Nats 2025 Fecha 3 Concepción' on October 25th with these includes: Mayhem Devil Commandeer Storm-Kiln Artist High Fae Trickster

datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Matias Caicedo O. went 2-3-1 on Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh // Silas Renn, Seeker Adept @ 'Road to Nats 2025 Fecha 3 Concepción' on October 25th with these includes:
Mayhem Devil
Commandeer
Storm-Kiln Artist
High Fae Trickster
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Matias Caicedo O. went 2-3-1 on Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh // Silas Renn, Seeker Adept @ 'Road to Nats 2025 Fecha 3 Concepción' on October 25th with these includes:
Mayhem Devil
Commandeer
Storm-Kiln Artist
High Fae Trickster
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Matias Caicedo O. went 2-3-1 on Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh // Silas Renn, Seeker Adept @ 'Road to Nats 2025 Fecha 3 Concepción' on October 25th with these includes:
Mayhem Devil
Commandeer
Storm-Kiln Artist
High Fae Trickster
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Matias Caicedo O. went 2-3-1 on Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh // Silas Renn, Seeker Adept @ 'Road to Nats 2025 Fecha 3 Concepción' on October 25th with these includes:
Mayhem Devil
Commandeer
Storm-Kiln Artist
High Fae Trickster

Recently successful spice 🌶️ Joe Scala went 3-2-2 on Tymna // Kraum @ 'The Quantum Grind: The Grind Begins 5k' on October 25th with these includes: Narset, Parter of Veils Notion Thief Timetwister Pollywog Prodigy

datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Joe Scala went 3-2-2 on Tymna // Kraum @ 'The Quantum Grind: The Grind Begins 5k' on October 25th with these includes:
Narset, Parter of Veils
Notion Thief
Timetwister
Pollywog Prodigy
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Joe Scala went 3-2-2 on Tymna // Kraum @ 'The Quantum Grind: The Grind Begins 5k' on October 25th with these includes:
Narset, Parter of Veils
Notion Thief
Timetwister
Pollywog Prodigy
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Joe Scala went 3-2-2 on Tymna // Kraum @ 'The Quantum Grind: The Grind Begins 5k' on October 25th with these includes:
Narset, Parter of Veils
Notion Thief
Timetwister
Pollywog Prodigy
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Joe Scala went 3-2-2 on Tymna // Kraum @ 'The Quantum Grind: The Grind Begins 5k' on October 25th with these includes:
Narset, Parter of Veils
Notion Thief
Timetwister
Pollywog Prodigy

Recently successful spice 🌶️ Alex Lien went 3-4-0 on Thrasios, Triton Hero // Tymna the Weaver @ 'The Fishbowl 6' on October 25th with these includes: Breena, the Demagogue Molt Tender Leyline of Anticipation Autumn's Veil

datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Alex Lien went 3-4-0 on Thrasios, Triton Hero // Tymna the Weaver @ 'The Fishbowl 6' on October 25th with these includes:
Breena, the Demagogue
Molt Tender
Leyline of Anticipation
Autumn's Veil
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Alex Lien went 3-4-0 on Thrasios, Triton Hero // Tymna the Weaver @ 'The Fishbowl 6' on October 25th with these includes:
Breena, the Demagogue
Molt Tender
Leyline of Anticipation
Autumn's Veil
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Alex Lien went 3-4-0 on Thrasios, Triton Hero // Tymna the Weaver @ 'The Fishbowl 6' on October 25th with these includes:
Breena, the Demagogue
Molt Tender
Leyline of Anticipation
Autumn's Veil
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Alex Lien went 3-4-0 on Thrasios, Triton Hero // Tymna the Weaver @ 'The Fishbowl 6' on October 25th with these includes:
Breena, the Demagogue
Molt Tender
Leyline of Anticipation
Autumn's Veil

Recently successful spice 🌶️ >:3 Sky Pavlov went 2-2-3 on Tymna // Kraum @ 'MBG Commanderpalooza #2 (TimeTwister event)' on October 25th with these includes: Permission Denied Disrupting Shoal Lim-Dûl's Vault Copy Artifact

datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
>:3 Sky Pavlov went 2-2-3 on Tymna // Kraum @ 'MBG Commanderpalooza #2 (TimeTwister event)' on October 25th with these includes:
Permission Denied
Disrupting Shoal
Lim-Dûl's Vault
Copy Artifact
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
>:3 Sky Pavlov went 2-2-3 on Tymna // Kraum @ 'MBG Commanderpalooza #2 (TimeTwister event)' on October 25th with these includes:
Permission Denied
Disrupting Shoal
Lim-Dûl's Vault
Copy Artifact
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
>:3 Sky Pavlov went 2-2-3 on Tymna // Kraum @ 'MBG Commanderpalooza #2 (TimeTwister event)' on October 25th with these includes:
Permission Denied
Disrupting Shoal
Lim-Dûl's Vault
Copy Artifact
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
>:3 Sky Pavlov went 2-2-3 on Tymna // Kraum @ 'MBG Commanderpalooza #2 (TimeTwister event)' on October 25th with these includes:
Permission Denied
Disrupting Shoal
Lim-Dûl's Vault
Copy Artifact

Recently successful spice 🌶️ Ian Flannery went 3-1-4 on Kinnan @ 'The Fishbowl 6' on October 25th with these spicy includes: Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir The Reality Chip Apple of Eden, Isu Relic Stock Up

datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Ian Flannery went 3-1-4 on Kinnan @ 'The Fishbowl 6' on October 25th with these spicy includes:
Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir
The Reality Chip
Apple of Eden, Isu Relic
Stock Up
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Ian Flannery went 3-1-4 on Kinnan @ 'The Fishbowl 6' on October 25th with these spicy includes:
Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir
The Reality Chip
Apple of Eden, Isu Relic
Stock Up
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Ian Flannery went 3-1-4 on Kinnan @ 'The Fishbowl 6' on October 25th with these spicy includes:
Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir
The Reality Chip
Apple of Eden, Isu Relic
Stock Up
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Ian Flannery went 3-1-4 on Kinnan @ 'The Fishbowl 6' on October 25th with these spicy includes:
Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir
The Reality Chip
Apple of Eden, Isu Relic
Stock Up

Recently successful spice 🌶️ Anthony Holden went 4-1-2 on Rograkh // Silas Renn @ 'SAT 0900 cEDH 5K - SCG CON Baltimore - Star City Games (SCG CON)' on October 25th with these spicy includes: Voltaic Key Snapback Strike It Rich Manifold Key

datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Anthony Holden went 4-1-2 on Rograkh // Silas Renn @ 'SAT 0900 cEDH 5K - SCG CON Baltimore - Star City Games (SCG CON)' on October 25th with these spicy includes:
Voltaic Key
Snapback
Strike It Rich
Manifold Key
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Anthony Holden went 4-1-2 on Rograkh // Silas Renn @ 'SAT 0900 cEDH 5K - SCG CON Baltimore - Star City Games (SCG CON)' on October 25th with these spicy includes:
Voltaic Key
Snapback
Strike It Rich
Manifold Key
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Anthony Holden went 4-1-2 on Rograkh // Silas Renn @ 'SAT 0900 cEDH 5K - SCG CON Baltimore - Star City Games (SCG CON)' on October 25th with these spicy includes:
Voltaic Key
Snapback
Strike It Rich
Manifold Key
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Anthony Holden went 4-1-2 on Rograkh // Silas Renn @ 'SAT 0900 cEDH 5K - SCG CON Baltimore - Star City Games (SCG CON)' on October 25th with these spicy includes:
Voltaic Key
Snapback
Strike It Rich
Manifold Key

Recently successful spice 🌶️ Sam Black went 6-1-0 on Rograkh // Thrasios @ 'Cian Colony Memorial Tournament 2025: Rog/Si Artist Proofs' on October 25th with these spicy includes: Hedron Crab Aftermath Analyst Lotus Cobra Six

datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Sam Black went 6-1-0 on Rograkh // Thrasios @ 'Cian Colony Memorial Tournament 2025: Rog/Si Artist Proofs' on October 25th with these spicy includes:
Hedron Crab
Aftermath Analyst
Lotus Cobra
Six
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Sam Black went 6-1-0 on Rograkh // Thrasios @ 'Cian Colony Memorial Tournament 2025: Rog/Si Artist Proofs' on October 25th with these spicy includes:
Hedron Crab
Aftermath Analyst
Lotus Cobra
Six
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Sam Black went 6-1-0 on Rograkh // Thrasios @ 'Cian Colony Memorial Tournament 2025: Rog/Si Artist Proofs' on October 25th with these spicy includes:
Hedron Crab
Aftermath Analyst
Lotus Cobra
Six
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Sam Black went 6-1-0 on Rograkh // Thrasios @ 'Cian Colony Memorial Tournament 2025: Rog/Si Artist Proofs' on October 25th with these spicy includes:
Hedron Crab
Aftermath Analyst
Lotus Cobra
Six

Recently successful spice 🌶️ zack jones went 3-1-4 on Rograkh // Silas Renn @ 'MBG Commanderpalooza #2 (TimeTwister event)' on October 25th with these spicy includes: Strix Serenade Flare of Denial Lim-Dûl's Vault Mana Drain

datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
zack jones went 3-1-4 on Rograkh // Silas Renn @ 'MBG Commanderpalooza #2 (TimeTwister event)' on October 25th with these spicy includes:
Strix Serenade
Flare of Denial
Lim-Dûl's Vault
Mana Drain
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
zack jones went 3-1-4 on Rograkh // Silas Renn @ 'MBG Commanderpalooza #2 (TimeTwister event)' on October 25th with these spicy includes:
Strix Serenade
Flare of Denial
Lim-Dûl's Vault
Mana Drain
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
zack jones went 3-1-4 on Rograkh // Silas Renn @ 'MBG Commanderpalooza #2 (TimeTwister event)' on October 25th with these spicy includes:
Strix Serenade
Flare of Denial
Lim-Dûl's Vault
Mana Drain
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
zack jones went 3-1-4 on Rograkh // Silas Renn @ 'MBG Commanderpalooza #2 (TimeTwister event)' on October 25th with these spicy includes:
Strix Serenade
Flare of Denial
Lim-Dûl's Vault
Mana Drain

Recently successful spice 🌶️ Erveen Nanick went 3-3-1 on Tymna // Kraum @ 'MBG Commanderpalooza #2 (TimeTwister event)' on October 25th with these spicy includes: Phyrexian Walker Ghostly Pilferer Ornithopter Memnite

datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Erveen Nanick went 3-3-1 on Tymna // Kraum @ 'MBG Commanderpalooza #2 (TimeTwister event)' on October 25th with these spicy includes:
Phyrexian Walker
Ghostly Pilferer
Ornithopter
Memnite
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Erveen Nanick went 3-3-1 on Tymna // Kraum @ 'MBG Commanderpalooza #2 (TimeTwister event)' on October 25th with these spicy includes:
Phyrexian Walker
Ghostly Pilferer
Ornithopter
Memnite
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Erveen Nanick went 3-3-1 on Tymna // Kraum @ 'MBG Commanderpalooza #2 (TimeTwister event)' on October 25th with these spicy includes:
Phyrexian Walker
Ghostly Pilferer
Ornithopter
Memnite
datatog's tweet image. Recently successful spice 🌶️
Erveen Nanick went 3-3-1 on Tymna // Kraum @ 'MBG Commanderpalooza #2 (TimeTwister event)' on October 25th with these spicy includes:
Phyrexian Walker
Ghostly Pilferer
Ornithopter
Memnite

Some commander win rates filtered for top players only. In this case, I used the top 10% of the Topdeck leaderboard (i.e. first 692 players). Other cut offs could also be intersting for the future. This method has some biases, but it's still interesting to look at.

datatog's tweet image. Some commander win rates filtered for top players only. In this case, I used the top 10% of the Topdeck leaderboard (i.e. first 692 players). Other cut offs could also be intersting for the future. This method has some biases, but it's still interesting to look at.

Here are the corresponding top cut win rates over the same time period. TnT and Kinnan stonks are up, while RogSi is on a downward trend. Ral is coming back from abysmal numbers.

datatog's tweet image. Here are the corresponding top cut win rates over the same time period. TnT and Kinnan stonks are up, while RogSi is on a downward trend. Ral is coming back from abysmal numbers.

Me when I look at win rates from Ral in cEDH:

datatog's tweet image. Me when I look at win rates from Ral in cEDH:
datatog's tweet image. Me when I look at win rates from Ral in cEDH:


Helm of Awakening has been dropping in popularity in Ral, and current win rate numbers support that decision. So maybe keep the Study and drop the Helm.

datatog's tweet image. Helm of Awakening has been dropping in popularity in Ral, and current win rate numbers support that decision. So maybe keep the Study and drop the Helm.

Me when I look at win rates from Ral in cEDH:

datatog's tweet image. Me when I look at win rates from Ral in cEDH:
datatog's tweet image. Me when I look at win rates from Ral in cEDH:

I hate to say it, but even Ral decks are better with Rhystic Study. WLD w/ Study: 90/154/66 = 34.4% win rate WLD w/o Study: 70/189/72 = 26.6% win rate

datatog's tweet image. I hate to say it, but even Ral decks are better with Rhystic Study.
WLD w/ Study: 90/154/66 = 34.4% win rate
WLD w/o Study: 70/189/72 = 26.6% win rate

Cluster analysis of Rog/Thras over the last 13 weeks shows 4 archetypes: 0️⃣ Breach/Brain Freeze 1️⃣ @SamuelHBlack-style Cradle Farm 2️⃣ 'Temur Problems' by Jonathan Vick 3️⃣ Semi-Blue

datatog's tweet image. Cluster analysis of Rog/Thras over the last 13 weeks shows 4 archetypes:
0️⃣ Breach/Brain Freeze
1️⃣ @SamuelHBlack-style Cradle Farm
2️⃣ 'Temur Problems' by Jonathan Vick
3️⃣ Semi-Blue
datatog's tweet image. Cluster analysis of Rog/Thras over the last 13 weeks shows 4 archetypes:
0️⃣ Breach/Brain Freeze
1️⃣ @SamuelHBlack-style Cradle Farm
2️⃣ 'Temur Problems' by Jonathan Vick
3️⃣ Semi-Blue
datatog's tweet image. Cluster analysis of Rog/Thras over the last 13 weeks shows 4 archetypes:
0️⃣ Breach/Brain Freeze
1️⃣ @SamuelHBlack-style Cradle Farm
2️⃣ 'Temur Problems' by Jonathan Vick
3️⃣ Semi-Blue
datatog's tweet image. Cluster analysis of Rog/Thras over the last 13 weeks shows 4 archetypes:
0️⃣ Breach/Brain Freeze
1️⃣ @SamuelHBlack-style Cradle Farm
2️⃣ 'Temur Problems' by Jonathan Vick
3️⃣ Semi-Blue

Using cluster analysis to try to separate Kinnan into ‘archetypes,’ I can identify two separate clusters. See their defining cards below.

datatog's tweet image. Using cluster analysis to try to separate Kinnan into ‘archetypes,’ I can identify two separate clusters. See their defining cards below.
datatog's tweet image. Using cluster analysis to try to separate Kinnan into ‘archetypes,’ I can identify two separate clusters. See their defining cards below.
datatog's tweet image. Using cluster analysis to try to separate Kinnan into ‘archetypes,’ I can identify two separate clusters. See their defining cards below.

This week - Higher guests! · Turbo is back · Counterspells are wack · Staying ahead of the meta · & lots more! youtu.be/4UK4XKBKy64

CriticalEDH's tweet image. This week - Higher guests!
· Turbo is back
· Counterspells are wack
· Staying ahead of the meta
· & lots more!
youtu.be/4UK4XKBKy64


Datatog reposted

Recently, people have been cutting Daze from their Rog/Si lists, but the win rate numbers don’t support this decision.

datatog's tweet image. Recently, people have been cutting Daze from their Rog/Si lists, but the win rate numbers don’t support this decision.

Loading...

Something went wrong.


Something went wrong.