I've spent years obsessing over 100-baggers. I recently found Anna Yartseva's study that analyzed 464 ten-baggers over 24 years. It challenged everything I thought I knew. FCF yield dominated every other factor. Here's why I'm rebuilding my approach:🧵
Elon Musk: We don't know the meaning of life, but we can expand consciousness to understand more. “Our AI Grok is modeled after the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, which is one of my favorite books. It's a book on philosophy disguised as a book on humor. And I would say that…
Jeff Bezos: “It’s generally human nature to overestimate risk and underestimate opportunity.”
Warren Buffett: "Having the right heroes is terribly important. You tell me who a ten-year-old's heroes are and I can give you a pretty good prediction about how they're gonna turn out. You want to choose your heroes very carefully b/c you're gonna look like them at some point."
The dark side of Steve Jobs that made him so successful
$VOO vs Hyperscalers $AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT $META last 5 years. If you had bought AMZN 5y ago, you would have massively underperformed the S&P500. If you had bought GOOGL, you would have comfortably beaten the market today, despite the current sentiment about the DOJ & disruption.
Investing is not easy: Picking a random stock gives you ~60% chance of underperformance and only a ~2.4% chance it contributes positively to total market wealth.
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