draftmetrics
@draftmetrics
I follow historical trends in the NFL draft. Don't scout players, but just report on probabilities. Email me at [email protected] for more information
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Since 2020, the Ravens have brought the most talent into the NFL (as measured in snap counts). Browns have brought the least. Get the free 2025 Season in Review by emailing me at [email protected]. Warning: Lots of numbers. #NFL #Ravens
Email me at draftmetrics@gmail if you want the complete analysis of 2018-2022 draft outcomes. #NFLDraft
Losers in the 2018-2022 drafts were the Texans (5 3-year starters) and the Patriots (6 3-year starters) #NFLDraft
The clear winner in looking at 2018-2022 drafts is the Ravens, who drafted 19 3-year starters, including a pair of 2-year All Pros. Bucs were next with 17 3-year starters. #NFLDraft
There is no shortage of draft grades being published for the 2025 draft. It's too soon to judge. We think the 3rd year after the draft is the earliest an assessment can be made. It is most useful to assess multiple years. Let's look at winners and losers from 2018-22 drafts.
In the 2024 season, just over 60% of scrimmage snaps were from players first drafted or signed as a UDFA by their 2024 team. Bucs were highest at 84% followed closely by Ravens at 83%. Lowest were the Panthers (41%) and Dolphins (42%) #NFL
How significant is experience in the NFL? 38% of 2024 scrimmage snaps were from players who entered the league in 2022 or later; 42% from players who entered in 2018-2021. Remaining 20% entered in 2017 or earlier. #NFL
Lowest number of expected starters were Vikings (1.26), the Rams (1.28), the Steelers (1.36), the Commanders (1.36) and the Falcons (1.64).
Highest number of expected 3-year starters were the Browns (3.56) followed by the Raiders (2.98), the 49ers (2.94), the Seahawks (2.92) and the Patriots (2.89).
It will be a few years before we know who "won" this draft. For right now, everyone's hopes are high. Based on historical averages and number and location of draft choices we calculated the expect number of three year starters for each team. #NFLDraft2025 #NFLDraft
How much impact will this year's draft class have? If history repeats, the 2025 class will account for about 10% of scrimmage snaps in the 2025 season. #NFLDraft2025 #NFLDraft
How dominant are the SEC and Big 10 in the draft? 58% of all draftees came from the two big boys and 76% of draftees in rounds 1 and 2. The SEC had slightly more selections with a wider margin in the earlier rounds. #NFLDraft #NFLDraft2025
As soon as the draft ended, the scramble was on to sign undrafted free agents. How important are UDFAs? In the 2024 season, UDFAs accounted for about 13.5% of all scrimmage snaps. So, pretty important. #NFLDraft2025 #NFLDraft
The 6th and 7th rounds show no discernible difference between drafting late vs early. One oddity. Selections in the 6th from 195-200 had a 20% success rate compared to a 7-8% rate for the full round. The Tom Brady effect? (Brady was drafted #199 in 2000) #NFLDraft #NFLDraft2025
The 5th round is much like the 4th. Selections early in the round have nearly double the success rate of those picked later. Through pick 147 the success rate is 25%. The success rate for the rest of the round is 13%. #NFLDraft #NFLDraft2025
There is an advantage to drafting early in the 4th round of the NFL draft. The success rate for selections through the 106th pick is 36% versus 20% for later in the round. #NFLDraft #NFLDraft2025
In the 3rd round, we enter the territory where, historically, one of three selections meets our 3-year starter metric. #NFLDraft #NFLDraft2025
Ready for Day 2 of the NFL Draft. The first 5 picks of the second round have historically had a high success rate, better than the second half of the first round. Maybe it's the reset after day 1. #NFLDraft #NFLDraft2025
If you look at selection by selection, the 1 and 13 picks were a perfect 11 for 11. Selections 4, 5, 6, 11 and 27 were 10 for 11. At the other end, #29 was 2 for 11 and #19 was 3 for 11. The 11 years are 2012 thru 2022. #NFLDraft #NFLDraft2025
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