econchart's profile picture. Macroeconomist @IIF. Sci-Fi Lover. Bolivian. jfortun@iif.com

Jonathan Fortun

@econchart

Macroeconomist @IIF. Sci-Fi Lover. Bolivian. [email protected]

Bolivia is debating fuel subsidies again. The arguments are familiar. What’s being missed is timing. December is not neutral. Activity is already peaking, pass-through is faster, and expectations shift immediately. The same reform lands very differently depending on when it’s…


Two dollars, one story. The AE dollar has weakened, but no more than it did under Trump I... nothing extraordinary. The EM dollar is weaker still, as EM currencies quietly regain ground. The dollar isn’t collapsing, it’s evolving.

econchart's tweet image. Two dollars, one story.

The AE dollar has weakened, but no more than it did under Trump I... nothing extraordinary.
The EM dollar is weaker still, as EM currencies quietly regain ground.
The dollar isn’t collapsing, it’s evolving.

Quoted in @business on Bolivia’s macro path after the election of Rodrigo Paz. The fiscal hole is immense. Adjustment is no longer optional, only a question of speed and disruption. The government may resist the optics, but in my view they will need to turn to the IMF.

Fresh off winning Sunday’s election, Bolivia’s next president Rodrigo Paz is blazing a rare centrist path out of his country’s economic crisis, focusing on practical policies over ideological divisions engulfing its neighbors bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

bloomberg.com

Bolivia’s Next President Targets Pragmatic Path Out of Crisis

Fresh off winning Sunday’s election, Bolivia’s next president Rodrigo Paz is blazing a rare centrist path out of his country’s economic crisis, focusing on practical policies over ideological...



Rodrigo Paz has won Bolivia’s presidency with 54.5% of the vote. But the fiscal hole exceeds 16% of GDP, fuel subsidies are unsustainable, and his economics team is fractured. The crisis is already unfolding. Read my latest take here: linkedin.com/pulse/bolivias…


The tiny Bolivian market welcoming the newly elected president Paz. Complete lack of credibility in his economic plan

econchart's tweet image. The tiny Bolivian market welcoming the newly elected president Paz. Complete lack of credibility in his economic plan

Jonathan Fortun reposted

👀 👀 🇧🇴

marceloclaure's tweet image. 👀 👀 🇧🇴

Bolivia está a 7 días del balotaje, pero la próxima crisis ya comenzó. No es inflación ni deuda. Es energía. El gas se acaba. El diésel es impagable. La red eléctrica está al límite. Parte V de la serie Zombie: La Frontera del Apagón linkedin.com/pulse/bolivias…


Bolivia is T-7 from a runoff but the next crisis is already here This one is not about inflation or debt It's about energy. Gas is running out. Diesel is unaffordable. The grid is exposed. Blackouts are coming Bolivia Apocalypse V: The Blackout Frontier linkedin.com/pulse/bolivias…

econchart's tweet image. Bolivia is T-7 from a runoff but the next crisis is already here This one is not about inflation or debt It's about energy. Gas is running out. Diesel is unaffordable. The grid is exposed. Blackouts are coming

Bolivia Apocalypse V: The Blackout Frontier
linkedin.com/pulse/bolivias…

Jonathan Fortun reposted

En la antesala de la segunda vuelta electoral el informe señala que el próximo gobierno de Bolivia recibirá un panorama fiscal, externo y financiero marcado por desequilibrios persistentes y restricciones severas. Más detalles bit.ly/4h52sS7 📷 Marcelo Perez del Carpio

BloombergLinea_'s tweet image. En la antesala de la segunda vuelta electoral el informe señala que el próximo gobierno de Bolivia recibirá un panorama fiscal, externo y financiero marcado por desequilibrios persistentes y restricciones severas. 
Más detalles bit.ly/4h52sS7
📷 Marcelo Perez del Carpio

Jonathan Fortun reposted

Per IIF data @econchart Arg attracted only $9.1bn in non-IMF flows since Milei was elected, but is now burning $200m-$500m a day holding an overvalued FX peg... This is Macri's second coming.

robhawcroft's tweet image. Per IIF data @econchart Arg attracted only $9.1bn in non-IMF flows since Milei was elected, but is now burning $200m-$500m a day holding an overvalued FX peg...  
This is Macri's second coming.

The insult grows: Bolivia's apparent increase in reserves is only a byproduct of gold sales. Which in turn is being monetized and adding to the inflation spiral...

econchart's tweet image. The insult grows: Bolivia's apparent increase in reserves is only a byproduct of gold sales. Which in turn is being monetized and adding to the inflation spiral...

#BCB | Comunicado de Prensa EL BANCO CENTRAL DE BOLIVIA PRESENTA RESULTADOS DE LAS RIN A SEPTIEMBRE DE 2025 Lee el comunicado completo en: bcb.gob.bo/webdocs/files_… #2025BicentenarioDeBolivia #UnPaisUnidoEsUnPaisFuerte

BancoCentralBO's tweet image. #BCB | Comunicado de Prensa
EL BANCO CENTRAL DE BOLIVIA PRESENTA RESULTADOS DE LAS RIN A SEPTIEMBRE DE 2025
Lee el comunicado completo en: bcb.gob.bo/webdocs/files_…
#2025BicentenarioDeBolivia 
#UnPaisUnidoEsUnPaisFuerte


Jonathan Fortun reposted

IIF's Jonathan Fortun's @econchart comments on Argent. He also has a really good series of articles on Bolivia. linkedin.com/posts/jfortun_…


Jonathan Fortun reposted

IIF UPDATE 📢 Portfolio flows to emerging markets #EM hit $44.8 bn in August, a rise from $38.1 bn in July, but we see rising fragility, as while #debt flows hit $41.5 bn, equity inflows fell sharply to just $3.3 bn 📉 @econchart Read More: ow.ly/gzj150WV8NG

IIF's tweet image. IIF UPDATE 📢 Portfolio flows to emerging markets #EM hit $44.8 bn in August, a rise from $38.1 bn in July, but we see rising fragility, as while #debt flows hit $41.5 bn, equity inflows fell sharply to just $3.3 bn 📉
@econchart 
Read More: ow.ly/gzj150WV8NG

Ecuador ended diesel subsidies on Sep 12 By the weekend, protests had begun Bolivia is next. A 16% deficit and vanishing reserves make subsidies unsustainable Both candidates promise to end them. Event studies show what follows: inflation jumps FX collapse linkedin.com/pulse/bolivias…


EMs FX used to sell off when US term premia rose That was the rule. For years, it worked. But in 25, something broke. Higher premia→stronger EMFX The relationship has flipped. This is not positioning. It is structural. Credibility is being priced Beta trade is being retired.

econchart's tweet image. EMs FX used to sell off when US term premia rose That was the rule. For years, it worked.
But in 25, something broke. Higher premia→stronger EMFX
The relationship has flipped. This is not positioning. It is structural. Credibility is being priced Beta trade is being retired.

The labor market is not gliding toward equilibrium. It is fracturing. Participation is falling in key states. U3 is distorted by disappearing supply. The migration shock amplified the break. Aggregates mislead. The weakness is already here.

econchart's tweet image. The labor market is not gliding toward equilibrium. It is fracturing. Participation is falling in key states. U3 is distorted by disappearing supply. The migration shock amplified the break. Aggregates mislead. The weakness is already here.
econchart's tweet image. The labor market is not gliding toward equilibrium. It is fracturing. Participation is falling in key states. U3 is distorted by disappearing supply. The migration shock amplified the break. Aggregates mislead. The weakness is already here.

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