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Macrostrategy

@macrostrategy1

No big China stimulus -- as we wrote earlier this week the game is consolidation and weeding out of the weak sisters. No reason to print.


Spain will complain but take the pain. European markets ignored Rajoy's kvetch today because they know the ending of this comedy.


Central banks are a snooze: Fed because it's out of ammo, ECB because the Germans won't budget, China because of NPLs. We stick to our story


New post on collapse of Egypt's reserves and military-MB confrontation: pjmedia.com/spengler/2012/…


Iran nuke program advancing faster than expected. We expect an Israeli strike before year-end. haaretz.com/misc/writers/b…


Draghi stalked by the ghost of Bundesbank past - Marsh on Monday - MarketWatch on.mktw.net/Pyyil0 via @MarketWatch = no bond buying


Fearing an Impasse in Congress, Industry Cuts Spending nyti.ms/Nvja7p Worst investment bust in history due to business-hostile Prez


3rd month of lower capgoods orders. Adjusted for inflation non-aircraft capgoods orders are 20% below the 2000 peak.


New Macrostrategist out yesterday measures risk aversion in equity markets by analyzing comparative returns for bond-like stocks


We told you not to short EUR or European debt markets...EURUSD up almost 3 big figures


New report: "Now they're cheap enough." reduced tail risk is reason enough to buy. Bank bail-ins are the wealth tax Europe needs.


RT @reuters: Analysis: As Egypt leaders feud, economy heads toward cliff reut.rs/N4Ezd0


Just another day in purgatory. No reason to buy risk assets but no reason to panic. Volatility remains muted because tail risk is capped.


Ignore the Fed. The market has to react because it's used to reacting but Bernanke's a bystander.


Just sent out new paper to clients. Take the shorts off Euro and Spanish/Italian debt


Just bought a small position in EWG (MSCI Germany ETF) -- little toe in the water, but I'm looking for the light at the end of the tunnel.


ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/07/1… In line with our May 31st "Who Gets Bailed In?" report, this is exactly right: make the Spanish savers pay.


First 2 days of earnings season confirm our core view that profit machine is busted. We're keeping our head down.


Is French Debt Worth More Than Its Face Value? - Bloomberg go.bloomberg.com/euro-crisis/20… We've advocated a "Maginot Line" for the Euro all along.


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